Capital is rotating out of crude oil, gold and silver into equities, with crypto to follow, giving the bull market fresh legs. All three commodities look exhausted after their melt-up, though their longer-term debasement, deficit and industrial-demand stories remain intact. Lower energy and commodity prices mean better margins and less inflation pressure. US large caps and the Nasdaq-100 show no signs of topping as AI earnings lift the S&P 500, and bitcoin is likely bottoming in the mid-$60Ks. … Show more

Oil will come down significantly, because Trump will eventually make a deal with Iran and put the conflict to bed. x.com 

Agricultural commodity prices should rise because a lack of fertilizer means lower crop yields. Cycles are up, wheat is breaking out on the weekly chart and agris look excellent across the board. Adecoagro could make a multi-quarter, multi-fold move once it breaks out of a 15.5-year base; it closed above its 200-day average after a likely five-year cycle low in December 2025. Above heavy supply near $12 it likely returns to its $16 high, while losing $8.88 could mean a retest of the lows. x.com 

Corteva is breaking out, with all indicators confirming and strong volume balance, while falling oil is a tailwind for this agriculture play. x.com 

Archer-Daniels-Midland has a catalyst in the likely lifting of the summer E15 restriction, which would expand its domestic demand floor as a major corn-ethanol producer. Pain at the pump from the Iran energy shock makes the lift increasingly likely, and Trump has promised to lift the June-September ban, reiterating it in Iowa in January; it is an easy win via the EPA. Peer Bunge is breaking all-time highs. A DOJ investigation into inflated 2022 revenue explains the overhang on the shares. x.com  … Show more

Crude oil looks set for a pullback because energy is more overbought than 95% of sessions in two years while market stress is deteriorating. Defense and drone sectors that rallied on the same geopolitical thesis are already breaking down. IEA members are releasing a record 400 million barrels of emergency reserves, and $1M of put spreads target a roughly 10% drop by mid-April. Oil also trades outside its Monte Carlo probability cone, though 8 of 9 models still say bullish. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Oil looks set to rise in the short term because Trump is likely to introduce complications during the intended two-week ceasefire. Funding on Hyperliquid is -700%, and most of those positioned against oil have to be wrong. This is a modest, short-term hedge given how unpredictable Trump is. x.com  x.com 

Oil-related stocks will be hit hard over the coming months and the next year, so it is way too early to buy them. Only later, in the next cycle, will oil-related stocks, including oil service names, do very well. A follower summarizing the call describes oil falling first, then rising toward 500 in the following cycle. x.com  x.com