Oil will come down significantly, because Trump will eventually make a deal with Iran and put the conflict to bed. x.com 

CF Industries should surge as the Middle East crisis cuts fertilizer supply just as planting demand peaks. Roughly a third of the world's fertilizer moves through the Strait of Hormuz, winter planting is starting, and farmers cannot delay, so they must pay whatever the price is. Surging gas prices also raise production costs. The stock pulled back as the market priced in the strait reopening, which has not happened, and could reach $150 short term. Oil is the obvious, mostly priced trade. x.com  … Show more

US energy stocks face pressure as the US-Iran memorandum of understanding reopens the Strait of Hormuz and lifts the US naval blockade. WTI broke below $80 from near $87 and could head toward $70, as oil, Treasury yields and the dollar broke lower together. Energy was the hardest-hit sector, while airlines rallied on relief from fuel costs. Lower oil eases inflation expectations, with headline CPI at 4.2% but core only 2.9%, removing pressure for Fed hikes. x.com  x.com 

Adecoagro has underperformed because oil prices have been suppressed, so it is likely to keep lagging for now. The original case rested on spiking urea prices and its cheap natural gas until 2027 via Vaca Muerta from the Profertil deal, and it may still win eventually. x.com  x.com 

Crude oil looks set for a pullback because energy is more overbought than 95% of sessions in two years while market stress is deteriorating. Defense and drone sectors that rallied on the same geopolitical thesis are already breaking down. IEA members are releasing a record 400 million barrels of emergency reserves, and $1M of put spreads target a roughly 10% drop by mid-April. Oil also trades outside its Monte Carlo probability cone, though 8 of 9 models still say bullish. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Oil is balanced on a very thin line between supply and demand, and the Iran conflict is a hostage standoff over 20% of the world's energy production. Nobody knows what happens next, but the situation looks extremely risky. A New York Post report on Iran conceding fails the sniff test, since that is Iran's only bargaining chip. The government is pushing oil down by shorting the front month, while the rest of the curve drifts rapidly higher. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oil's 14% plunge on the ceasefire is a chance to add energy, because a ceasefire is not a resolution and structural energy demand doesn't vanish. The Strait of Hormuz isn't open, Iran is demanding ships get permission to cross on a two-week clock, and WTI is still 44% above pre-war levels. The ceasefire bought time, not certainty, so the energy sector is worth buying near support around its 50-day moving average. x.com 

US energy stocks such as Valero are resuming their uptrend after a brief ceasefire correction because the US is draining reserves at an incredibly fast pace to keep oil and gasoline flowing and stop prices from spiraling. x.com 

Bunge's chart looks like gold and energy did before they ripped, and the Hormuz disruption to fertilizer trade puts one of the world's largest agribusinesses in focus. Hormuz is choking about 30% of global fertilizer trade and half of the world's urea exports. x.com 

Gevo's low-carbon jet fuel and renewable natural gas look more useful amid the oil turmoil. Its supply chain breaks away from oil rigs, crude pipelines and refineries: farm-grown industrial corn and biomass are processed into ethanol, then converted into jet fuel through an alcohol-to-jet process. The stock showed incredible relative strength and a new one-year breakout. x.com  x.com