Europe's jet fuel shortage should fast-track sustainable aviation fuel, with Neste the cleanest, highest-conviction play. The IEA saw about six weeks of European jet fuel left in mid-April, with 75% of imports once routed via the Middle East, and the EU is using the crisis to push ReFuelEU blend mandates. Neste, the top SAF producer, is scaling European plants to 2.2 million tons a year by 2027 with deals at 100+ EU airports. TotalEnergies, Gevo and Aemetis are secondary plays. x.com 

Valero faces structural obsolescence as battery and solar costs fall and transportation shifts from diesel to EVs, a risk the market misses by overweighting the news and the present. Its stock swung from $120 in 2018 to $40 in 2020 to $422 now. Valero and solar maker LONGi sit at opposite ends of who will power future transportation, with opposite present circumstances and opposite structural paths given the evolution of costs. x.com  x.com 

Gevo is expensive against its sales. At $1.57 it trades at 3x sales, while chemicals producers usually get 2x. Fair value is $1.06–$1.36, or 2x next year's sales give or take 12%, so the price is 16% over the top of fair. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com 

Archer-Daniels-Midland has a catalyst in the likely lifting of the summer E15 restriction, which would expand its domestic demand floor as a major corn-ethanol producer. Pain at the pump from the Iran energy shock makes the lift increasingly likely, and Trump has promised to lift the June-September ban, reiterating it in Iowa in January; it is an easy win via the EPA. Peer Bunge is breaking all-time highs. A DOJ investigation into inflated 2022 revenue explains the overhang on the shares. x.com  … Show more