Valero looks expensive against its earnings, trading at 17x, or 10x next year's, versus the usual 9x for oil and gas producers. At 9x mid-cycle EPS of $22.12, give or take 12%, fair value is $177.34-$225.71, so the $406.30 price is 80% above fair, though trailing and forward reads differ by 63%. This is a valuation read off reported earnings and estimates only, with no fundamental work. x.com 

Shell's stronger refining profits and larger buyback support the view that its breakout holds. Q3 adjusted earnings reached $10.8 billion versus $9.9 billion expected, as refining margins hit a record $42 a barrel; the three-month buyback rises from $3 billion to $5 billion. Those margins will not last forever. x.com 

US energy stocks such as Valero are resuming their uptrend after a brief ceasefire correction because the US is draining reserves at an incredibly fast pace to keep oil and gasoline flowing and stop prices from spiraling. x.com 

Refiners such as Valero and Marathon Petroleum may be nearing a top, because the cure for high prices is always high prices. The stocks have made monster moves as crack spreads blow out and foreign buyers fight for distillate capacity. x.com 

Refiners such as Valero and PBF look past their best, because higher oil prices are no longer necessarily bullish for them. Per a client, refiners are running at 95% and still can't build finished-product inventories. These look like as-good-as-it-gets earnings, and prices look ahead to demand deconstruction: high prices force alternatives and faster cost-cutting. Capacity scarcity still supports valuations, as with AI stocks, but price controls always backfire. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Diesel stocks are the play, and US refiners Valero, PBF Energy and HF Sinclair work until an expected US export ban arrives. This answers @bubbleboi, who sees diesel or jet fuel as the best way to play the move and wonders whether it ties to the bombing of Saudi refiners. With the ban coming, the bigger focus should be European refiners OMV and Repsol, while Calumet offers the most torque through aviation fuels. x.com 

Enphase, Rivian and Tesla stand to benefit as California's gasoline crunch pushes drivers toward solar and EVs. As @aakashgupta notes, the last Middle East tanker is unloading in Long Beach, and California must replace 200,000 barrels a day while its unique CARB blend bars fuel from Texas and other refineries. Gas could climb from $8 to $12 a gallon, and with about 260 sunny days a year and growing solar, it is time to cut the cord on oil. x.com 

Oil refiners look too late to chase because they are over-earning, and margins will likely compress down the line. Refiners ran as Chinese utilization fell about 40% and 40% of Russian capacity went offline because of the war, pushing product-versus-crude margins to all-time highs of $80-100. Oil services names such as SLB look better placed to benefit. x.com 

With the 10-year Treasury yield touching 5%, cash generation and price strength matter more, favoring developed-market large caps that pair the highest free-cash-flow yields with strong momentum. General Motors leads with an 18.8% FCF yield, followed by BP at 13.6%, Marathon Petroleum at 11.6% with a top momentum score of 100, DHL at 11.4% and Shell at 11.3%. Verizon, AT&T, Suncor, Valero and Equinor complete the list with yields of 8.9% to 10.1% and momentum scores from 80 to 100. x.com 

Society's fossil energy consumption should improve even as AI data centers draw more power, which favors solar over energy stocks. AI should considerably shorten project and product timelines and make token consumption more efficient, while solar keeps rising. x.com