US energy stocks remain the trade because the Iran war keeps hitting oil supply; it is not a dip-buying chance in tech. Iran struck more Persian Gulf energy sites, including the Fujairah bypass route, erasing Monday's relief rally and lifting Brent back above $104. Hormuz is still contested, tanker insurance stays high, and the IEA's record 400 million-barrel release did not stop the climb. Chevron, Marathon Petroleum, Valero, Occidental and Phillips 66 held green as stock futures fell. x.com  … Show more

US crude and Chevron face a potential domestic glut: supertanker export costs are said to have risen from $8 million to $80 million, pushing Asian and European buyers toward Saudi and South American oil. Limited US refining capacity could leave the surplus unused and bankrupt smaller producers, though the author still says earlier exports caused a shortage. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Refiners such as Valero and Marathon Petroleum may be nearing a top, because the cure for high prices is always high prices. The stocks have made monster moves as crack spreads blow out and foreign buyers fight for distillate capacity. x.com 

Baker Hughes, Valero Energy and Cheniere Energy stand to profit from a dual catalyst: the oil shock and tariff refunds. The three were identified by using AI to comb through large amounts of data. x.com 

Crude oil's 4 million-barrel-a-day global inventory draw despite weaker exports and refinery demand signals physical tightness. Chinese exports and refinery demand in Russia and China are each down a few million barrels a day, yet Brent is at a more than four-year high. Bessent says Persian Gulf exports exceed prewar levels, but cash and dated Brent trade well above front-month futures. Rising backwardation and inventory draws leave smaller buffers if escalation continues. x.com  x.com 

Money is rotating from big refiners and integrated oil companies into oil drilling and servicing firms. The move could be in its early innings, and the recent drilling gains alongside refiner losses are working in that direction. x.com 

Oil refiners such as Marathon Petroleum and Valero stand to benefit as renewed Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries look bullish for crack spreads. A drone reportedly hit Kirishi's KINEF refinery again just as it was preparing to restart after months of repairs. KINEF is one of Russia's largest refineries, processing about 20 million tons of oil a year, roughly 6.6% of the country's refining capacity. x.com 

Oil refiners have become the bottleneck, with refining, not crude, now setting fuel prices. Per @JeffSnider_EDU, crude inventories are only 6% below normal, but gasoline stocks just fell 5 million barrels in a week and diesel is 12% below average despite soft freight and US gasoline demand down 2.2%. Refineries running at 95.8% still can't keep up, pushing the crack spread to record highs. x.com 

Valero faces structural obsolescence as battery and solar costs fall and transportation shifts from diesel to EVs, a risk the market misses by overweighting the news and the present. Its stock swung from $120 in 2018 to $40 in 2020 to $422 now. Valero and solar maker LONGi sit at opposite ends of who will power future transportation, with opposite present circumstances and opposite structural paths given the evolution of costs. x.com  x.com 

US energy stocks such as Valero are resuming their uptrend after a brief ceasefire correction because the US is draining reserves at an incredibly fast pace to keep oil and gasoline flowing and stop prices from spiraling. x.com