Shell's stronger refining profits and larger buyback support the view that its breakout holds. Q3 adjusted earnings reached $10.8 billion versus $9.9 billion expected, as refining margins hit a record $42 a barrel; the three-month buyback rises from $3 billion to $5 billion. Those margins will not last forever. x.com 

Transocean's current free cash flow puts its DCF value well into double digits with modest growth. With more aggressive growth, it would be a multibagger. Improved leverage, Valaris synergies and more rigs make it the best way to play a new offshore cycle, if one is underway. The deal has cleared reviews but still needs shareholder approval. High short interest suggests a squeeze is coming soon, though its trigger level is unknown. x.com 

Oil refiners have become the bottleneck, with refining, not crude, now setting fuel prices. Per @JeffSnider_EDU, crude inventories are only 6% below normal, but gasoline stocks just fell 5 million barrels in a week and diesel is 12% below average despite soft freight and US gasoline demand down 2.2%. Refineries running at 95.8% still can't keep up, pushing the crack spread to record highs. x.com 

Oil refiners look too late to chase because they are over-earning, and margins will likely compress down the line. Refiners ran as Chinese utilization fell about 40% and 40% of Russian capacity went offline because of the war, pushing product-versus-crude margins to all-time highs of $80-100. Oil services names such as SLB look better placed to benefit. x.com 

Refiners such as Valero and Marathon Petroleum may be nearing a top, because the cure for high prices is always high prices. The stocks have made monster moves as crack spreads blow out and foreign buyers fight for distillate capacity. x.com 

Chevron already has producing Venezuelan ventures, but expanded agreements still need drilling, dependable power, crews and equipment before more barrels can be sold. Its three ventures were producing about 280,000 barrels a day at the July earnings call, and production had grown 15% year to date by September. Keep holding Chevron, but past gains do not justify buying more at any price. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Offshore-industry consolidation is a major tailwind for Transocean. Approval of its merger with Valaris should unlock upside over the next few quarters, with shares next running to $7 or higher. x.com 

Transocean is a $7 billion company facing the biggest offshore drilling boom in 15 years, and it could double or triple. New technology lets a single ship drill two wells at once, collapsing the cost of offshore oil, so every major oil company and sovereign fund is drilling offshore, from Total's West Africa deals to Exxon's discoveries. That sends demand for the rigs and drillships these companies own through the roof. Elliott has just bought into Transocean. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oil refiners such as Marathon Petroleum and Valero stand to benefit as renewed Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries look bullish for crack spreads. A drone reportedly hit Kirishi's KINEF refinery again just as it was preparing to restart after months of repairs. KINEF is one of Russia's largest refineries, processing about 20 million tons of oil a year, roughly 6.6% of the country's refining capacity. x.com 

US crude and Chevron face a potential domestic glut: supertanker export costs are said to have risen from $8 million to $80 million, pushing Asian and European buyers toward Saudi and South American oil. Limited US refining capacity could leave the surplus unused and bankrupt smaller producers, though the author still says earlier exports caused a shortage. x.com  x.com  x.com