Charlie Garcia
Founder & Managing Partner of R360, Entrepreneur/Author, Veteran
Chevron already has producing Venezuelan ventures, but expanded agreements still need drilling, dependable power, crews and equipment before more barrels can be sold. Its three ventures were producing about 280,000 barrels a day at the July earnings call, and production had grown 15% year to date by September. Keep holding Chevron, but past gains do not justify buying more at any price. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Shell's stronger refining profits and larger buyback support the view that its breakout holds. Q3 adjusted earnings reached $10.8 billion versus $9.9 billion expected, as refining margins hit a record $42 a barrel; the three-month buyback rises from $3 billion to $5 billion. Those margins will not last forever. x.comÂ
Chevron is one of the easiest longs because owning it is basically going long power needs, alongside GE Vernova. Per @wallstengine, Chevron signed a 20-year deal with Microsoft to supply gas-fired power to a proposed West Texas data center, Kilby, using Permian gas in GE Vernova turbines. It targets first power by 2028, ramping to 2.67GW, with a final investment decision expected later this year. x.comÂ
Chevron's management is not what it seemed, as the stock has underperformed other large oil companies despite record fuel costs and Venezuelan tailwinds. That undercuts the earlier view that upside oil risk would carry the shares, so cash is better for now. x.comÂ
Oil majors such as Shell, BP, ExxonMobil and Chevron deserve their multiples because they have consistently generated 10%+ returns across complete energy cycles. They are integrated, now diversified, and control a key commodity for decades ahead. Investors will do fine if they hold for the long term. x.comÂ
Exxon Mobil and Chevron are among the highest-quality energy stocks and are long-term holdings, so a quarterly earnings decline is just noise while the thesis is intact. In cyclicals like energy, the approach is to buy only at the deepest cycle lows, never chase, and hold until the thesis permanently breaks. x.comÂ
Money is rotating from big refiners and integrated oil companies into oil drilling and servicing firms. The move could be in its early innings, and the recent drilling gains alongside refiner losses are working in that direction. x.comÂ
Crude oil's price risk is to the upside as Iran keeps restricting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which also favors Chevron. Per a Wall Street Journal report cited by @spectatorindex, Iran told mediators it will continue to limit the number of ships allowed to cross and will charge tolls for the rest of the ceasefire. x.comÂ
Oil company stocks are a steadier way to play high oil than crude itself. Crude swings wildly on every headline, while producers' earnings benefit as long as prices stay elevated, even without a further surge. Chevron is the best pick: it gains from higher oil prices and from Venezuelan production, having been the only oil major still operating there before Maduro's capture. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF is also a good choice, steadier than crude. x.com x.comÂ
US crude and Chevron face a potential domestic glut: supertanker export costs are said to have risen from $8 million to $80 million, pushing Asian and European buyers toward Saudi and South American oil. Limited US refining capacity could leave the surplus unused and bankrupt smaller producers, though the author still says earlier exports caused a shortage. x.com x.com x.comÂ
US energy stocks remain the trade because the Iran war keeps hitting oil supply; it is not a dip-buying chance in tech. Iran struck more Persian Gulf energy sites, including the Fujairah bypass route, erasing Monday's relief rally and lifting Brent back above $104. Hormuz is still contested, tanker insurance stays high, and the IEA's record 400 million-barrel release did not stop the climb. Chevron, Marathon Petroleum, Valero, Occidental and Phillips 66 held green as stock futures fell. x.com … Show more
