Say No To Trading
Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management
Exxon Mobil and Chevron are among the highest-quality energy stocks and are long-term holdings, so a quarterly earnings decline is just noise while the thesis is intact. In cyclicals like energy, the approach is to buy only at the deepest cycle lows, never chase, and hold until the thesis permanently breaks. x.comÂ
Oil majors such as Shell, BP, ExxonMobil and Chevron deserve their multiples because they have consistently generated 10%+ returns across complete energy cycles. They are integrated, now diversified, and control a key commodity for decades ahead. Investors will do fine if they hold for the long term. x.comÂ
Chevron already has producing Venezuelan ventures, but expanded agreements still need drilling, dependable power, crews and equipment before more barrels can be sold. Its three ventures were producing about 280,000 barrels a day at the July earnings call, and production had grown 15% year to date by September. Keep holding Chevron, but past gains do not justify buying more at any price. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Chevron and Exxon Mobil face capital strain after their hedging blew up. They may need to raise capital through sales or borrowing if they cannot cut costs, and are struggling to keep enough capital to sustain their dividend floor. x.comÂ
Exxon Mobil and other critical names that embrace every theme should go vertical, even though hard assets, especially energy, sit in the fog of war and no one wants to chase them. Timing hinges on a late-summer pivot: @radigancarter sees markets front-running it, and winners and losers should be sorted ahead of it. In that shift, duration is torched but bifurcates between abundance and scarcity, convexity is mispriced and beta looks dangerous. x.comÂ
Oil company stocks are a steadier way to play high oil than crude itself. Crude swings wildly on every headline, while producers' earnings benefit as long as prices stay elevated, even without a further surge. Chevron is the best pick: it gains from higher oil prices and from Venezuelan production, having been the only oil major still operating there before Maduro's capture. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF is also a good choice, steadier than crude. x.com x.comÂ
Exxon Mobil looks set for a pullback despite its uptrend, as it sits where it formed a shooting star before. It is printing a daily spinning top, and a one-minute hanging man was followed by a sweep of highs and rejection on high volume. Options flow showed $8M in December 145 puts and $12M of 180 calls sold. x.comÂ
Heavy-asset, low-obsolescence businesses such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, Waste Management, Safran and GE Aerospace are where the next decade's wealth will be built, as AI turns code into a commodity. Their moats are physics, regulation and scarcity: pipelines, landfill permits and jet engine certification take permits, capital and decades to build, and cannot be replicated by a founder with a laptop and an API key. Software's asset-light story is over. x.comÂ
US energy stocks are being steadily accumulated after a 17-year base, and that base will not resolve in a month. The sector broke out this year and pulled back on contracting volume, which is digestion, not distribution. Energy trades near 13x earnings versus about 20x for hyperscalers. Stocks now rise with oil and get bought back when oil falls. Tech is priced for the cost of capital to come down; energy for the reason it will not. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Chevron's management is not what it seemed, as the stock has underperformed other large oil companies despite record fuel costs and Venezuelan tailwinds. That undercuts the earlier view that upside oil risk would carry the shares, so cash is better for now. x.comÂ
US energy stocks remain the trade because the Iran war keeps hitting oil supply; it is not a dip-buying chance in tech. Iran struck more Persian Gulf energy sites, including the Fujairah bypass route, erasing Monday's relief rally and lifting Brent back above $104. Hormuz is still contested, tanker insurance stays high, and the IEA's record 400 million-barrel release did not stop the climb. Chevron, Marathon Petroleum, Valero, Occidental and Phillips 66 held green as stock futures fell. x.com … Show more
