Scott R. Grossman
Founder of Vindico Capital, Consumer-Sector Investor
Exxon Mobil and other critical names that embrace every theme should go vertical, even though hard assets, especially energy, sit in the fog of war and no one wants to chase them. Timing hinges on a late-summer pivot: @radigancarter sees markets front-running it, and winners and losers should be sorted ahead of it. In that shift, duration is torched but bifurcates between abundance and scarcity, convexity is mispriced and beta looks dangerous. x.comÂ
Exxon Mobil and Chevron are among the highest-quality energy stocks and are long-term holdings, so a quarterly earnings decline is just noise while the thesis is intact. In cyclicals like energy, the approach is to buy only at the deepest cycle lows, never chase, and hold until the thesis permanently breaks. x.comÂ
Oil majors such as Shell, BP, ExxonMobil and Chevron deserve their multiples because they have consistently generated 10%+ returns across complete energy cycles. They are integrated, now diversified, and control a key commodity for decades ahead. Investors will do fine if they hold for the long term. x.comÂ
Exxon Mobil looks set for a pullback despite its uptrend, as it sits where it formed a shooting star before. It is printing a daily spinning top, and a one-minute hanging man was followed by a sweep of highs and rejection on high volume. Options flow showed $8M in December 145 puts and $12M of 180 calls sold. x.comÂ
US energy stocks EQT, EOG Resources, natural-gas producers and Exxon still deserve attention even at current levels, because the Iran conflict will last longer than the administration is communicating. Iran may have created a permanent toll booth for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving President Trump in a bind even if he backs down. @aleabitoreddit notes oil and LNG exporters could run further if tensions escalate. x.comÂ
Heavy-asset, low-obsolescence businesses such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, Waste Management, Safran and GE Aerospace are where the next decade's wealth will be built, as AI turns code into a commodity. Their moats are physics, regulation and scarcity: pipelines, landfill permits and jet engine certification take permits, capital and decades to build, and cannot be replicated by a founder with a laptop and an API key. Software's asset-light story is over. x.comÂ
Chevron and Exxon Mobil face capital strain after their hedging blew up. They may need to raise capital through sales or borrowing if they cannot cut costs, and are struggling to keep enough capital to sustain their dividend floor. x.comÂ
US energy stocks are being steadily accumulated after a 17-year base, and that base will not resolve in a month. The sector broke out this year and pulled back on contracting volume, which is digestion, not distribution. Energy trades near 13x earnings versus about 20x for hyperscalers. Stocks now rise with oil and get bought back when oil falls. Tech is priced for the cost of capital to come down; energy for the reason it will not. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Large-cap value stocks should do well as the Fed starts a hiking cycle; BofA favors them because they have historically outperformed at this stage, and analysts expect three more hikes over 12 months. The US mega-caps with the highest Deep Value Scores, combining low multiples with high free-cash-flow yields, are Verizon 88, CVS Health 86, Pfizer 84, AT&T 84, Bristol Myers Squibb 82, ConocoPhillips 74, T-Mobile 74, Chevron 72, Altria 70 and Exxon Mobil 65. x.comÂ
US energy stocks could rerate if energy prices stay elevated, because S&P 500 index holders have effectively been short energy for a decade. Per the quoted post, the equal-weight S&P 500 has fallen against the cap-weighted index for ten years and this year hit its lowest level, below even the 2020 panic low. x.comÂ
US energy stocks still make sense in a portfolio for the longer-term macro regime. The timing for their next move is not there yet. x.comÂ
