Research & Invest
Investor, Institutional Asset Management Background
Enphase, Rivian and Tesla stand to benefit as California's gasoline crunch pushes drivers toward solar and EVs. As @aakashgupta notes, the last Middle East tanker is unloading in Long Beach, and California must replace 200,000 barrels a day while its unique CARB blend bars fuel from Texas and other refineries. Gas could climb from $8 to $12 a gallon, and with about 260 sunny days a year and growing solar, it is time to cut the cord on oil. x.comÂ
Tesla's distraction with merging with SpaceX makes Rivian a great buy here. x.comÂ
Enphase, SolarEdge and Fluence are being sold while their order books grow. Power consumption is expected to rise 65% in a year, yet these energy stocks fell 10% or more in a day; the market just does not see the demand yet. x.comÂ
Enphase's US home-solar demand still has not stabilized, delaying its potential home-power recovery to 2027. Q4 revenue guidance of $225-255M is about 20% below the Street at the midpoint, and guided gross margin falls to 40-43% from 45%. Higher electricity costs from AI demand could eventually favor homes generating and storing power; its IQ Battery 5G stores about 50% more energy and costs about 40% less to make. The next two quarters look tough. x.com x.comÂ
Solar is worth being heavily long through Enphase Energy and T1 Energy as it takes a larger share of US power. Per a quoted post, solar generated more US electricity than coal for the first time in May, 12.8% versus 12.2%, and solar plus storage made up 91% of new US power capacity added in Q1. x.comÂ
Enphase is one of the most asymmetric opportunities in the market because the US is banning Chinese solar inverters and Enphase is one of the largest US inverter makers. Its new data center product also has 20+ customers lined up. A 15% drop from the morning's highs after the ban news looks like free money. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's capital-intensive charging network will lack the reach of venue-based rivals, worsening its EV cost competitiveness. Its bidirectional-capable cars cost much more than competitors', and its Powerwall is also more expensive. Tesla has not yet surfaced a way to discharge from a car to the grid from anywhere and get paid, while rivals are working on one. x.com x.comÂ
The Iran war will restart the energy-independence narrative, so demand for SolarEdge and Enphase is bound to grow and start a new cycle. Conviction is high, betting big on the hope that the uptrend is only just starting. x.com x.comÂ
LONGi's depressed valuation shows the market confusing short-term circumstances with structural trends, as falling battery and solar costs shift future transport toward EVs and renewables. Valero and LONGi sit at opposite ends of who will power future transport, and each one's present circumstances run opposite to its likely structural path. The market puts too much weight on the news, as Valero's swings from $120 in 2018 to $40 in 2020 and $422 now show. x.com x.comÂ
Tesla's Q3 earnings beat came from tariff refunds, not operations. The Supreme Court's IEEPA ruling let Tesla book $786M in refunds, less $339M owed to storage customers: $447M or 62% of Q3 operating income. Without that, GAAP EPS was $0.12 versus $0.20 estimated and operating margin 1.0%. Gross profit is not keeping pace with spending. Tesla trades at 500x trailing earnings versus 32x for the Mag-6 despite falling Q3 revenue, EBIT down 56% year on year and reduced capex. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
SolarEdge and Enphase are both best positioned for solid-state transformers, and both are mid-term accumulation candidates, with no preference yet between them. Per a post the author replies to, Enphase uses Infineon's GaN bidirectional switches for its SST. Their charts suggest the monster move can continue. x.com x.comÂ
