Geoffrey Fouvry
Founder & CEO of GraphCall/GraphFinancials, Financial Data Analysis
LONGi's depressed valuation shows the market confusing short-term circumstances with structural trends, as falling battery and solar costs shift future transport toward EVs and renewables. Valero and LONGi sit at opposite ends of who will power future transport, and each one's present circumstances run opposite to its likely structural path. The market puts too much weight on the news, as Valero's swings from $120 in 2018 to $40 in 2020 and $422 now show. x.com x.comÂ
LONGi Green Energy rides solar's rapid growth, with annual global installations rising from about 175GW in 2021 to 240GW in 2022, 447GW in 2023, an 87% jump, and about 600GW in 2024, up another 33%. Capital markets are a psychiatric ward, and investors can choose to be patients or staff. x.com x.comÂ
Solar is the cheapest energy source to build right now as its costs keep falling, making First Solar, Array Technologies, Shoals and the solar ETF the solar plays within the energy transition. Elon Musk says solar will eventually supply essentially all the energy humanity harnesses because the giant fusion reactor in the sky is free. x.comÂ
China's solar bottom will be set by which manufacturers survive, not by price, and the clean-out has begun. Capacity of 1,200GW is double the 580GW of demand, and chain-wide gross margins are still negative: the top five lost 28 billion yuan in a year and over 50 firms went bankrupt. Effective capacity is shrinking, and ending export tax rebates, a stockpiling platform and leader-led M&A should speed the clean-out, with Tongwei absorbing peers and LONGi betting everything on BC. x.com x.comÂ
LONGi's entry into energy storage, following BYD and CATL, means another Chinese industry will be crushed by price wars, making these stocks uninvestable. LONGi targets 90GWh of shipments and 70 billion yuan of revenue by 2030, reusing its solar-module channels, brand and cross-selling. Chinese manufacturers always meet a new growth area by adding capacity and cutting margins to grab share, and LONGi will likely chase share with low prices just as in solar modules. x.com x.comÂ
Battery and solar stocks like T1 Energy, FuelCell Energy, Fluence, Ford, Nextracker and First Solar are a short-term trade on unusual technical strength and large call option flows. The cause is unclear; the guess is that investors expect an energy shift away from oil and gas after the Iran war, with solar and batteries the most viable options and nuclear seen as a costly 2030s dream. Per Chris Wright's interview, the Trump administration is unblocking nuclear rules, so nuclear is tradable too. … Show more
T1 Energy is building toward US solar cell production with its G2 plant in Texas. The $425M first phase is underway, the full $850M project should create about 1,800 jobs, and G2 should be producing solar cells by year-end. Tesla scaling its own solar production with SpaceX is not a competitive worry: it reflects a broader trend toward localized manufacturing and confirms the solar market will be big enough for other players. It is a long-term hold with its own risks. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Solar is worth being heavily long through Enphase Energy and T1 Energy as it takes a larger share of US power. Per a quoted post, solar generated more US electricity than coal for the first time in May, 12.8% versus 12.2%, and solar plus storage made up 91% of new US power capacity added in Q1. x.comÂ
Shoals sits closer to solar's real bottleneck than generation names like First Solar and Array. As cell efficiency keeps improving, highlighted by a singlet-fission result beyond the Shockley-Queisser limit, the constraint moves downstream to the grid, interconnection, storage and power equipment. The better trade is owning that chokepoint rather than every solar name. x.comÂ
Enphase, Rivian and Tesla stand to benefit as California's gasoline crunch pushes drivers toward solar and EVs. As @aakashgupta notes, the last Middle East tanker is unloading in Long Beach, and California must replace 200,000 barrels a day while its unique CARB blend bars fuel from Texas and other refineries. Gas could climb from $8 to $12 a gallon, and with about 260 sunny days a year and growing solar, it is time to cut the cord on oil. x.comÂ
T1 Energy should benefit massively from tariffs as one of the only US-owned polysilicon-to-panel solar chains inside the tariff wall. Solar cell tariffs start December 4, and its Texas cell fab turns on a quarter later, using American polysilicon from Hemlock. Q2 revenue hit a record $250 million, up 41% sequentially, though positive EBITDA leaned on a $24 million one-time tariff refund. Closing the G2 financing, still only targeted for a fourth straight quarter, is the key catalyst. x.com x.com … Show more
SOLV Energy is off to the races as a builder of large-scale solar and battery storage projects that keep industries powered. It covers solar, high voltage, battery storage, services, O&M and SCADA, and has built 500+ power plants, 50+ battery storage systems and 300+ interconnections, as an $8 billion company. x.comÂ
