Macro_Lin
Semiconductor Analyst, AI Chip Design, Ex-Quant/Portfolio Manager
LONGi's entry into energy storage, following BYD and CATL, means another Chinese industry will be crushed by price wars, making these stocks uninvestable. LONGi targets 90GWh of shipments and 70 billion yuan of revenue by 2030, reusing its solar-module channels, brand and cross-selling. Chinese manufacturers always meet a new growth area by adding capacity and cutting margins to grab share, and LONGi will likely chase share with low prices just as in solar modules. x.com x.comÂ
Downward earnings revisions among the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF's constituents add pressure to its existing downside case. Multiple bearish events continue to weigh on the fund, leaving the short thesis intact. x.comÂ
Lithium Americas likely faces downside as lithium oversupply and slower EV adoption pressure lithium prices and battery demand. A catalyst table citing S&P Global Commodity Insights, Reuters and Global X ranks both risks very high, noting Australian restarts, returning Zimbabwean supply and September global EV sales down 2% year over year. Puts on the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF also hedge the Lithium Americas holding. x.com x.comÂ
LONGi's depressed valuation shows the market confusing short-term circumstances with structural trends, as falling battery and solar costs shift future transport toward EVs and renewables. Valero and LONGi sit at opposite ends of who will power future transport, and each one's present circumstances run opposite to its likely structural path. The market puts too much weight on the news, as Valero's swings from $120 in 2018 to $40 in 2020 and $422 now show. x.com x.comÂ
T1 Energy is undervalued as an essential power provider for the AI boom, with an aggressive 18-month target of $18 against an average analyst target of $9.00-10.25. As hyperscalers hit a power bottleneck, its pivot to US solar manufacturing, battery storage via the KORE Power acquisition and possible data center repurposing make it a high-conviction growth play. The target assumes successful G2 Austin execution, positive EBITDA in 2027 and a lasting premium for US AI-adjacent energy names. x.com … Show more
Canadian Solar has no thesis without FEOC and 45X compliance, because those rules gate every leg of its business, battery storage included. Storage faces the strictest FEOC thresholds, Canadian Solar makes batteries in China and its anode material is under a US AD/CVD case, so its Kentucky battery plant is a compliance effort, not a hedge. US non-Chinese wafer supply is tiny and committed, with Corning's output going to T1 Energy, Suniva and Heliene; its own would take years and billions. x.comÂ
BYD looks like the safer value play because its vehicle sales and revenue exceed Tesla's while its valuation is much lower. The comparison puts BYD at about $111 billion of sales and market cap, versus Tesla's $94.8 billion sales and $1.45 trillion cap; BYD delivered 2.26 million battery EVs against Tesla's 1.64 million in 2025. China's price war still keeps BYD's margins thin. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Fluence Energy's battery storage systems address the AI data-center power bottleneck. AI clusters need massive steady power that slow grid expansion cannot supply, and Fluence's behind-the-meter storage gives hyperscalers faster grid access, load shaping and backup power. A record backlog above $5.6 billion and doubled order intake support growth across grid, renewables and data centers, while gross margin is climbing and cash flow improving. The company began as a Siemens and AES joint venture. … Show more
Canadian Solar is probably as hurt as anyone by China's polysilicon policy, which at the very least piles more uncertainty onto a story already bogged down with it. The policy also dings JinkoSolar by hitting its workarounds for entering the US market. Chinese solar has still risen on the broader anti-involution story, a bid that reads as a sentiment shift and growing confidence in anti-involution. x.comÂ
T1 Energy's fully domestic solar cell-to-module supply chain lets it capture all IRA tax incentives behind US tariff walls, giving it near-monopoly pricing leverage. Its 5GW G1 Dallas module plant earned Intertek CEA's top Tier-A bankability rating, key to long-term power contracts, and its 2.1GW G2 Austin cell plant targets Q4 2026. Buying KORE Power for about $32 million adds battery storage for solar-plus-storage sales to hyperscalers and $15-20 million of annual EBITDA from 2027. x.comÂ
Canadian Solar's debt is a major turnoff and its enterprise value limits the upside multiple, even if its battery storage deployments rival Fluence's. Battery deployment is lumpy, its supply chain is hard to assess, and a post the author replies to argues most of the debt is non-recourse project finance backed by long-term PPAs. x.com x.comÂ
