Just a Dude Who Invests
Retail Investor, Economics & Technology Commentary
Palantir has an unusually strong backer: President Trump posted about Palantir by name and ticker, calling its warfighting capabilities proven, per @StockSavvyShay. A sitting president rarely references an individual stock so directly, and calling it crucial technology makes a bearish stance hard to justify. x.comÂ
Palantir could run as one of the stocks President Trump has publicly praised or discussed, after the last name he mentioned, Dell, smashed earnings and rose roughly 75% since. Trump's list spans AI, defense, manufacturing and autonomy, with Palantir as the defense pick. x.comÂ
Continued improvement in fundamentals and technicals could carry Palantir to megacap scale. A $1 trillion market cap is a realistic destination for strong growth companies, and Palantir appears on that path, though its timing is uncertain. Drawdowns remain opportunities to accumulate until the thesis changes. x.comÂ
Palantir's roughly $500B market cap and 80x sales make it prudent to trim exposure despite continued affection for the company. Its tenfold run has already delivered substantial gains, not just the beginning; smaller speculative positions are getting crushed in this environment. x.com x.comÂ
Palantir's government contract activity is growing sharply, supporting its resilience despite the share-price pullback. Its $2.1 billion in 12-month obligations is up 184% from the prior year, among the strongest increases tracked. The Cryptic Bottom Index remains green despite the pullback. Its score is among the highest in the Cryptic Research System, led by growth and profitability, though catalysts and valuation score weakest. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Palantir is primed for a massive bounce, holding just above a solid $122-$128 demand zone as sellers run out of steam and pullback volume dries up. If it holds the $130-$132 area, the next leg targets the $145+ supply zone, and clearing that could make the move explosive, following Intel and Dell. x.comÂ
Palantir's strength during market weakness is one to fade, because that strength turns it into a crowded trade everyone piles into. x.comÂ
Palantir may be undervalued because the market values it as a software company while its opportunity is much bigger. It spans AI deployment, government contracts, enterprise adoption and mission-critical data infrastructure, and expensive stocks can stay expensive when the business keeps expanding. x.comÂ
Palantir's accelerating commercial growth, sticky contracts and high margins make it a standout aggressive growth name despite its premium valuation. Q1 2026 revenue rose 85% to $1.63B, US commercial revenue grew 133% and government 84%, and full-year guidance was raised to about 71% growth. CEO Alex Karp cites overwhelming demand it cannot fully meet, showing real platform adoption rather than hype. x.comÂ
Palantir's share price demands unusually fast cash and profit growth despite its strong business. At roughly $210, it implies 48.5% annual growth for five years; at 32% annual growth, the shares would be worth $96.64. It is a Watch, not a Buy at today's prices. Q2 sales rose 93% and cash flow after employee stock pay was $2.52 billion over 12 months, but government concentration, cancellable contracts and rising stock pay remain risks. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Palantir is irreplaceable even if it is probably overvalued on traditional metrics at $150. Its government contract moats, new defense AI deals and one of the most defensible software positions in enterprise AI support the stock. Overvalued and irreplaceable are not mutually exclusive. x.comÂ
