Anand
AI Engineer, Thematic Stock & Crypto Trader, Fundamental & Technical Analysis
Palantir's downtrend could turn violent as the market chases shiny new sectors and the expensive narrative may still hold. It remains a top watchlist name, but it looks double-edged here, so patience is warranted. x.comÂ
Palantir's roughly $500B market cap and 80x sales make it prudent to trim exposure despite continued affection for the company. Its tenfold run has already delivered substantial gains, not just the beginning; smaller speculative positions are getting crushed in this environment. x.com x.comÂ
Palantir's latest shakeout was a setup to buy, not a warning. In a crowded name, stops cascade as holders decide something must be wrong, handing institutions the liquidity they need before funds scurry back into longs, the 'Screw Bar' pattern @ShakePryzby1 describes. The decisive entries are a bullish open above the 21-day EMA with intraday follow-through, or a reclaim of the prior day's high. x.comÂ
Palantir is becoming a crowded trade as one of only a handful of attractive growth stocks, so the unwind could be nasty. x.comÂ
Palantir's reliance on pay-as-you-go service with refunds makes customer cancellations and sudden earnings declines or write-downs a serious risk as AI and high SaaS prices pressure the business. Its 10-Q warns of these risks. Anthropic can and will easily replace Palantir with an all-in-one platform under Democratic control of the legislative branches. x.com x.comÂ
Continued improvement in fundamentals and technicals could carry Palantir to megacap scale. A $1 trillion market cap is a realistic destination for strong growth companies, and Palantir appears on that path, though its timing is uncertain. Drawdowns remain opportunities to accumulate until the thesis changes. x.comÂ
Palantir is a worse business than CrowdStrike, Cloudflare and Datadog and is at the tail end of its acceleration cycle, while the cybersecurity supercycle may just be starting. So its fall to half CrowdStrike's and Snowflake's EV-to-operating-income multiple, noted by @CoorsLightCEO, makes sense once anchoring is removed. All of them are overvalued, though. x.comÂ
Palantir's long-term moat is hard to assert in a heavily computational space. Clients have an incentive to remove inefficiencies, and it will become increasingly easy for them to drop its value proposition and build their own, so there are better picks. x.comÂ
Palantir's government and commercial AI demand keeps compounding. Holding through volatility still calls for careful sizing: a 590% gain can turn into a 50% drawdown fast. x.com x.comÂ
Palantir looks set to fall below $100 on an incredibly bearish chart and institutional put flow. x.com x.comÂ