Palantir's high-margin consulting layer is being commoditized as frontier models make complex data orchestration cheap and fast. Enterprises need not spend $10 million and 18 months on a rigid Foundry ontology when frontier models can parse messy data and build workflows in hours; Alex Karp's token-fee complaints reflect that. Its national-security moat is cracking as military operators use tools like Claude Code directly, and talent is fleeing to frontier labs. Palantir is a short. x.com 

Palantir's multiple is too high to pay, so the stock is likely to be a source of funds for two-plus years. That holds even if @DivesTech is right that the narrative of Anthropic eating Palantir's lunch is wrong and Palantir sits at the epicenter of AI leaders. x.com 

Enterprise demand for sovereign AI favors Palantir's transformation model. In a two-pronged AI economy, businesses can retain their IP and use low-cost open models while frontier labs compete for the last increment of intelligence. x.com 

Palantir looks exposed as AI deployment gets cheaper and more crowded, because outside government contracts it lacks domain expertise and controls no meaningful infrastructure software, relying on others such as Databricks. Amazon and Microsoft are launching forward-deployed engineering and frontier AI groups backed by deep enterprise relationships, and open-source models gaining traction should bring costs down. IT services firms such as Infosys could do really well instead. x.com  x.com 

Palantir is a worse business than CrowdStrike, Cloudflare and Datadog and is at the tail end of its acceleration cycle, while the cybersecurity supercycle may just be starting. So its fall to half CrowdStrike's and Snowflake's EV-to-operating-income multiple, noted by @CoorsLightCEO, makes sense once anchoring is removed. All of them are overvalued, though. x.com 

Palantir's government contract activity is growing sharply, supporting its resilience despite the share-price pullback. Its $2.1 billion in 12-month obligations is up 184% from the prior year, among the strongest increases tracked. The Cryptic Bottom Index remains green despite the pullback. Its score is among the highest in the Cryptic Research System, led by growth and profitability, though catalysts and valuation score weakest. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Palantir's roughly $500B market cap and 80x sales make it prudent to trim exposure despite continued affection for the company. Its tenfold run has already delivered substantial gains, not just the beginning; smaller speculative positions are getting crushed in this environment. x.com  x.com 

Palantir's long-term moat is hard to assert in a heavily computational space. Clients have an incentive to remove inefficiencies, and it will become increasingly easy for them to drop its value proposition and build their own, so there are better picks. x.com 

Continued improvement in fundamentals and technicals could carry Palantir to megacap scale. A $1 trillion market cap is a realistic destination for strong growth companies, and Palantir appears on that path, though its timing is uncertain. Drawdowns remain opportunities to accumulate until the thesis changes. x.com 

Palantir remains a great company, but after a roughly 60% run in two months its valuation is much less compelling; price still matters. Its edge is connecting data across an organization and turning it into decisions and actions as companies and governments spend heavily on AI. Last quarter US commercial revenue grew 150%, US government revenue 90%, operating margin reached 62% and free-cash-flow margin 63%. A meaningful pullback would be worth watching closely. x.com