Tom Shaughnessy
Founding Partner at Delphi Ventures, Co-Founder of Delphi Digital
Palantir's very high multiple could compress enough to lose money even if its enterprise AI thesis plays out. Its forward-deployed engineers help CEOs connect company data and modernize systems with AI, making workflows on its platform sticky; near term, enterprises want that hands-on upgrade and more control of their AI stacks. Still, the valuation is too hard to get comfortable with. x.comÂ
Palantir's ontology can make AI work verifiable beyond coding, helping enterprises adopt it more broadly. Its map of an enterprise's objects, relationships and rules could make even an average Nemotron model state of the art for that enterprise's own work. If results are good enough, firms will use them for sovereign AI; enterprises will not want to blindly run closed frontier models on codified context and give their know-how away. x.comÂ
AI infrastructure bottlenecks could give eight stocks as much as 18x upside. Nvidia supplies frontier-model GPUs; Broadcom and Marvell supply custom silicon and networking; TSMC makes advanced chips; Micron supplies sold-out HBM; Vertiv provides power and cooling; Palantir monetizes enterprise AI; Alphabet spans TPUs, research, cloud and apps. The list tracks where AI infrastructure spending is flowing. x.com x.comÂ
Palantir's reliance on pay-as-you-go service with refunds makes customer cancellations and sudden earnings declines or write-downs a serious risk as AI and high SaaS prices pressure the business. Its 10-Q warns of these risks. Anthropic can and will easily replace Palantir with an all-in-one platform under Democratic control of the legislative branches. x.com x.comÂ
Palantir's product thesis gains as Alex Karp signals the end of the GPT API era for enterprises, shifting the bottleneck from compute to deployment, which is exactly what Palantir sells and what the market hasn't priced. Per CNBC, Karp says OpenAI and Anthropic's token model is completely wrong as enterprise CEOs balk at the costs. x.comÂ
Palantir gains as enterprises look for model-agnostic platforms rather than over-relying on any one AI lab, a lesson from the Anthropic/Mythos drama. It can be the neutral third party with deep AI expertise, mediating between AI labs and government, AI labs and the private sector, and government and the private sector. The $128 level has held well, which keeps the risk defined. x.com x.comÂ
Palantir's high-margin consulting layer is being commoditized as frontier models make complex data orchestration cheap and fast. Enterprises need not spend $10 million and 18 months on a rigid Foundry ontology when frontier models can parse messy data and build workflows in hours; Alex Karp's token-fee complaints reflect that. Its national-security moat is cracking as military operators use tools like Claude Code directly, and talent is fleeing to frontier labs. Palantir is a short. x.comÂ
Palantir's partnership with Nebius is a big step toward running customers' AI in production. Palantir named Nebius its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner, and per Nebius its compute and inference endpoints will run inside the Palantir enterprise perimeter, giving commercial customers control over compute, data and models adapted with their own data. Running AI at scale needs much more than bare metal and a frontier model to be production ready. x.com x.comÂ
Palantir remains attractive, but CEO Alex Karp's sales pitch is the wrong strategy. At AIPCon he said customers will learn that model companies do not care about their business, only token use. The better message is that models keep getting more valuable, which makes Palantir's orchestration and proper deployment inside an organization even more valuable. x.com x.comÂ
Palantir looks exposed as AI deployment gets cheaper and more crowded, because outside government contracts it lacks domain expertise and controls no meaningful infrastructure software, relying on others such as Databricks. Amazon and Microsoft are launching forward-deployed engineering and frontier AI groups backed by deep enterprise relationships, and open-source models gaining traction should bring costs down. IT services firms such as Infosys could do really well instead. x.com x.comÂ
Palantir's commercial growth is shifting toward partner-led distribution through an expanded alliance with PwC to accelerate enterprise-AI deployment in M&A and ERP modernization. It also named Nebius its preferred sovereign-AI infrastructure partner. Its AIP solves real enterprise pain points around security, permissions and workflow integration, driving triple-digit US commercial growth, while its defense moat, 84%-85% gross margins and GAAP profitability add support. x.comÂ