Nick Dorsey
Deals Lead at Compute Exchange, Building Joule14
Palantir remains attractive, but CEO Alex Karp's sales pitch is the wrong strategy. At AIPCon he said customers will learn that model companies do not care about their business, only token use. The better message is that models keep getting more valuable, which makes Palantir's orchestration and proper deployment inside an organization even more valuable. x.com x.comÂ
Enterprise demand for sovereign AI favors Palantir's transformation model. In a two-pronged AI economy, businesses can retain their IP and use low-cost open models while frontier labs compete for the last increment of intelligence. x.comÂ
Palantir's ontology can make AI work verifiable beyond coding, helping enterprises adopt it more broadly. Its map of an enterprise's objects, relationships and rules could make even an average Nemotron model state of the art for that enterprise's own work. If results are good enough, firms will use them for sovereign AI; enterprises will not want to blindly run closed frontier models on codified context and give their know-how away. x.comÂ
Palantir's reliance on pay-as-you-go service with refunds makes customer cancellations and sudden earnings declines or write-downs a serious risk as AI and high SaaS prices pressure the business. Its 10-Q warns of these risks. Anthropic can and will easily replace Palantir with an all-in-one platform under Democratic control of the legislative branches. x.com x.comÂ
Palantir may be undervalued because the market values it as a software company while its opportunity is much bigger. It spans AI deployment, government contracts, enterprise adoption and mission-critical data infrastructure, and expensive stocks can stay expensive when the business keeps expanding. x.comÂ
Palantir deserves to trade at a premium because it operates on a different level from the rest of SaaS in converting AI demand into actual customer value. The long-term view is ultra bullish. x.comÂ
Palantir's long-term moat is hard to assert in a heavily computational space. Clients have an incentive to remove inefficiencies, and it will become increasingly easy for them to drop its value proposition and build their own, so there are better picks. x.comÂ
Continued improvement in fundamentals and technicals could carry Palantir to megacap scale. A $1 trillion market cap is a realistic destination for strong growth companies, and Palantir appears on that path, though its timing is uncertain. Drawdowns remain opportunities to accumulate until the thesis changes. x.comÂ
Palantir already shows companies returns on AI as they shift from testing it to demanding results. JPMorgan's $262 target is about 32% above the current price; the multi-model signal is Long, with three of four models agreeing ahead of Monday's earnings. x.comÂ
Palantir's high-margin consulting layer is being commoditized as frontier models make complex data orchestration cheap and fast. Enterprises need not spend $10 million and 18 months on a rigid Foundry ontology when frontier models can parse messy data and build workflows in hours; Alex Karp's token-fee complaints reflect that. Its national-security moat is cracking as military operators use tools like Claude Code directly, and talent is fleeing to frontier labs. Palantir is a short. x.comÂ
Palantir gains as enterprises look for model-agnostic platforms rather than over-relying on any one AI lab, a lesson from the Anthropic/Mythos drama. It can be the neutral third party with deep AI expertise, mediating between AI labs and government, AI labs and the private sector, and government and the private sector. The $128 level has held well, which keeps the risk defined. x.com x.comÂ
