Energy Recovery is the best way to play desalination if the regime throws a hail mary at desalination plants, which have already been discussed as possible targets. The theme has about a thousandth as many stocks as energy, where low-float proxy BATL rose 27x. Energy Recovery is one of only a handful of pure plays, an optional small cap, with a fortress valuation and project backlog. x.com 

Energy Recovery is a high-margin IP business priced like an industrial, and water is the overlooked bottleneck for AI and people alike. Its PX Pressure Exchanger, over 90% of revenue at 60%+ gross margins, cuts desalination energy use up to 60% with no competitor. The stock halved on guidance cuts tied to its 50% Middle East exposure during the Iran war and CEO and CFO exits, but Q1 revenue grew 20% and a resolving war is a catalyst. It has $77M net cash, a ~9% buyback yield and insider buying. … Show more

US energy stocks EQT, EOG Resources, natural-gas producers and Exxon still deserve attention even at current levels, because the Iran conflict will last longer than the administration is communicating. Iran may have created a permanent toll booth for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving President Trump in a bind even if he backs down. @aleabitoreddit notes oil and LNG exporters could run further if tensions escalate. x.com 

Oil is balanced on a very thin line between supply and demand, and the Iran conflict is a hostage standoff over 20% of the world's energy production. Nobody knows what happens next, but the situation looks extremely risky. A New York Post report on Iran conceding fails the sniff test, since that is Iran's only bargaining chip. The government is pushing oil down by shorting the front month, while the rest of the curve drifts rapidly higher. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Crude oil's latest drop reflects real Gulf export capacity coming back, which erodes Iran's Hormuz leverage. Saudi Arabia resumed loadings at Yanbu, with the East-West Pipeline at 2-2.65m barrels a day and seen by Kpler rising to 3-4m soon. Saudi and UAE shuttle tankers under US escort have restored at least 60% of pre-war flows. The risk: Qatar's mediation is stuck, per Axios, and a squeezed Iran may escalate against ports, refineries, pipelines or Red Sea shipping. x.com 

Peace with Iran will be the market catalyst by easing oil-driven inflation and financing concerns. Normal cargo costs would stabilize oil prices as refineries rebuild and production rises; inflation expectations and the US 10-year yield would fall, bringing liquidity back into technology. The deal is an extremely strong suspicion, not concrete knowledge, and its timing is unknown. Unlike the 21.4% SPY drawdown before the April 2025 tariff pause, the index has seen no drawdown yet. x.com 

The Strait of Hormuz situation looks bad for oil supply, because Iran has the leverage to keep control of it and collect tolls. Iranian drones have changed the equation despite substantial US air and naval power, there has been no uprising, and any ground invasion would take very long. Saudi Arabia and Qatar lack the naval muscle and rely on the US, and new pipelines take years, so affected countries will have to play ball for at least a few years. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Crude oil could jump toward $130-140 if a strike takes Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export hub, offline and removes a large chunk of supply at once. Iran would likely retaliate beyond military targets with regional proxies, widening the conflict. Even the risk of disrupted exports or unsafe shipping could push prices sharply higher in thin weekend liquidity as shipping slows and insurance spikes. By Monday, oil and energy-linked assets would be repriced higher and inflation expectations reset. … Show more

Crude oil is set to stay more expensive for longer because the supply chain disruption from the Iran conflict is real and will not be fixed soon. Its effects are already visible in Europe and likely in Asia. Even a supply shock lasting only a few weeks would take months or quarters to reverse, feeding global inflation and possibly rate hikes. The longer the situation lasts, the more pain and the longer the repair. x.com 

Oil is headed to $100 because damaged Middle East supply cannot come back quickly, even if US-Iran talks progress. About 7% of the world's oil supply is burning and shut down, and rebuilding those sites takes years, which undercuts Macquarie's call for a surplus before year-end on a US-Iran de-escalation. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com