Galaxy Digital is in no man's land as a stock for now. Its core trading business probably breaks even, worth maybe $5 a share, its CoreWeave HPC deal still has a long ramp before cash flows arrive, and its approved Texas capacity has only 50/50 odds of getting power assigned, so hyperscalers won't commit. That tempers @SimonSaysBTC's math on Helios, including about $1.2B of annual revenue from the 800 MW CoreWeave contract. x.com 

IREN's predatory management and markedly weaker execution than Nebius make it hard to take seriously while Mike Alfred remains on its board. Barring an oversold bounce, IREN looks cooked big time with more time. x.com  x.com 

Galaxy Digital may be the market's most undervalued stock because its $6.5B value overlooks Helios I's contracted rent and $6.6B in cash, Treasuries, digital assets and investments. Its first full Helios I Phase I quarter delivered $69M of data-center adjusted EBITDA. Novogratz said Galaxy rejected a Helios II lease as power tightened; a higher-priced tenant is still prospective. Galaxy expects $800-850M in annualized leasing by end-2027, and the stock should quickly reach $30+ by year-end. … Show more

IREN's $363 million in GPU-backed financing makes it a bet to survive neocloud consolidation. Elon Musk warned that drying debt markets could kill or consolidate many of the 200-plus neoclouds, leaving only a few survivors; IREN secured funding in that very market. x.com 

Galaxy Digital's public shares deserve a discount because its Up-C structure leaves insiders in control while public common holds less than half the enterprise's economics. Insiders take tax savings through the Tax Receivable Agreement, and an early buyout of it at $30 could cost the company about $1 billion, as could a Helios spin-off. Combined with crypto volatility, time to power and its revealed cost of debt, a discount is warranted, though its size is debatable. x.com  x.com 

Scarce power available for 2028 delivery and rising demand for that capacity favor Galaxy Digital, IREN and Cipher Mining. XCapitalMgmt highlights Galaxy management's report of delayed competing projects, stronger demand from hyperscalers and AI firms for 2028 capacity, and more selective financing. Galaxy has over 800 MW secured at Helios II but is still evaluating tenants and deal terms. x.com 

Open-source models likely wrecked the heavy-capex thesis behind IREN. Debt CDS and falling token prices make the still-bullish view definitely less so. Unlike Roku, a previous long-term hold with a unique, massive user base, low capex and positive free cash flow, IREN lacks a clear path forward; without one, it is better not to hold it. If Warsh remains hawkish, a full exit from IREN is very likely. x.com  x.com 

IREN's AI data-center expansion needs enormous capital, making financing needs and execution delays material risks. Bitcoin exposure adds another source of uncertainty despite the size of the AI opportunity; the stock looks tempting but is not one to buy here. x.com 

Reduced perceived CoreWeave credit risk and a fully ramped lease would support a higher valuation for Galaxy Digital. A $50 share price in 18 months seems reasonable if the CoreWeave lease reaches $1B+ of EBITDA and the first phase of an 830MW lease to a new investment-grade tenant is online by mid-2028, adding $200M-$300M of EBITDA. Further leases and execution at other sites, a crypto bull market and recurring digital-asset licensing revenue could take it much higher. x.com 

IREN's low-margin bare-metal business is being financed on uncontracted future capacity, so rising opex and added financing will pressure it. A Goldman Sachs report now flags exactly that: extra financing supports a material amount of uncontracted capacity, the Secured Power metric IREN touts. Most AI data center leasing models will be pressured in some way, and IREN is the most obvious example. x.com