Rittenhouse Research
AI Infrastructure, Data Centers, Neoclouds, Software & Fintech Research
Reduced perceived CoreWeave credit risk and a fully ramped lease would support a higher valuation for Galaxy Digital. A $50 share price in 18 months seems reasonable if the CoreWeave lease reaches $1B+ of EBITDA and the first phase of an 830MW lease to a new investment-grade tenant is online by mid-2028, adding $200M-$300M of EBITDA. Further leases and execution at other sites, a crypto bull market and recurring digital-asset licensing revenue could take it much higher. x.comÂ
Galaxy Digital may win a higher unlevered yield on a Helios II lease as financing costs rise. Ferraro sounded more bullish on a new tenant than before, though no deal is signed. April 2027 for studied-load allocations is sooner than expected; mid-2028 for the first phase suggests utility work is advancing. Its $1.6B-plus raise and a further $200M buyback authorization bolster its finances. Regulatory risk remains, but it looks better prepared than peers. x.comÂ
Galaxy Digital's Helios leases are becoming operating capacity, supporting its AI infrastructure opportunity alongside institutional digital assets. It has delivered 133 MW of critical IT capacity to CoreWeave and contracted 526 MW across three 15-year phases, with about $1 billion in anticipated annual lease revenue once fully delivered. CoreWeave's widening credit spreads and Galaxy's exposure to that customer remain risks; a breakout above resistance in the $30s is still conditional. x.comÂ
Galaxy Digital may be the market's most undervalued stock because its $6.5B value overlooks Helios I's contracted rent and $6.6B in cash, Treasuries, digital assets and investments. Its first full Helios I Phase I quarter delivered $69M of data-center adjusted EBITDA. Novogratz said Galaxy rejected a Helios II lease as power tightened; a higher-priced tenant is still prospective. Galaxy expects $800-850M in annualized leasing by end-2027, and the stock should quickly reach $30+ by year-end. … Show more
Galaxy Digital's public shares deserve a discount because its Up-C structure leaves insiders in control while public common holds less than half the enterprise's economics. Insiders take tax savings through the Tax Receivable Agreement, and an early buyout of it at $30 could cost the company about $1 billion, as could a Helios spin-off. Combined with crypto volatility, time to power and its revealed cost of debt, a discount is warranted, though its size is debatable. x.com x.comÂ
Galaxy Digital's landlord position gives it a meaningfully higher floor than CoreWeave as a way to bet on a CoreWeave rebound. Even if CoreWeave restructures, an energized ERCOT lease is one a debtor would fight to keep; in the worst case, Galaxy still owns the land, buildings and grid interconnect. Galaxy is noisier quarter to quarter, but CoreWeave carries more risk of permanent capital loss. x.comÂ
Scarce power available for 2028 delivery and rising demand for that capacity favor Galaxy Digital, IREN and Cipher Mining. XCapitalMgmt highlights Galaxy management's report of delayed competing projects, stronger demand from hyperscalers and AI firms for 2028 capacity, and more selective financing. Galaxy has over 800 MW secured at Helios II but is still evaluating tenants and deal terms. x.comÂ
Galaxy Digital faces structural selling pressure because it needs equity financing, and Mike Novogratz knows it. A single raise to institutions obliterated the stock, while IREN absorbs regular ATM sales easily. The market dislikes the crypto part of the business and, more importantly, has no confidence that a team of crypto executives can pull off a data center build-out. That follows a new filing flagged in a post the author replies to. x.com x.com x.comÂ
CoreWeave looks positioned to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of years of demand for GPU computing at scale. It should be one of the most important players in the AI infrastructure buildout, with Jensen Huang and Nvidia deeply tied to it. At $50 a share, its debt load is not a concern; the stock could look like one of the best buying opportunities by decade-end. x.com x.comÂ
CoreWeave's contract-backed loans and higher compute pricing ease its financing risk. Goldman says lenders underwrite customer cash flows and GPU collateral; it expects more delayed-draw loans and says DDTL 5.0 and 5.5 trade at or above original issue discounts. Short-term contracts are signed at $40 million per MW, with prices raised 25% in July and 10% in October; Goldman uses $13 million per MW as a starting assumption for new longer-term deals. Goldman rates it Buy with a $106 target. x.com … Show more
Galaxy Digital is in no man's land as a stock for now. Its core trading business probably breaks even, worth maybe $5 a share, its CoreWeave HPC deal still has a long ramp before cash flows arrive, and its approved Texas capacity has only 50/50 odds of getting power assigned, so hyperscalers won't commit. That tempers @SimonSaysBTC's math on Helios, including about $1.2B of annual revenue from the 800 MW CoreWeave contract. x.comÂ
CoreWeave's debt-funded GPUs make financing costs central to its business, while credit markets now price severe distress. Its five-year CDS reached 1,194 basis points on October 15 and remained near 1,145 last week, implying roughly 60% default odds over five years. If yields fall after the FOMC yet shares cannot hold $50, the balance sheet deserves more scrutiny than the macro backdrop. x.comÂ
