Temple 8 Research
AI Buildout, Macro & Energy Infrastructure Research
Sivers Semiconductors keeps getting bad news, now a report that its Head of Photonics has sold all his shares. Per that unconfirmed report, McKee owned just over one million shares at the start of the year, sold about half in the first quarter and the remaining roughly 515,000 in the second. x.comÂ
Sivers Semiconductors has become a crowded retail meme stock at about 100x sales, and it will fall toward fair value, possibly 10 SEK or lower. Optical demand is real but doesn't guarantee Sivers succeeds, and a bear market, which looks likely next year, could wipe holders out before revenue materializes. Per @TheWiseAdapter, revenue is about $33 million in 2025 and $41 million in 2026, with continued losses against a roughly $3 billion market cap. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Sivers Semiconductors' results are likely to disappoint because it lacks production capacity. Optical results are a simple function of capacity: Lumentum and Coherent should post strong numbers as capacity comes online, but Sivers has no meaningful increment to add. It reports results only once a year, and each report card has sunk the stock. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Sivers Semiconductors' stock looks unlikely to resist the current negative sentiment, even though belief in the company itself remains. There is no point following it all the way down, which is stepping aside rather than turning bearish, and it is worth reconsidering after earnings in August. x.com x.comÂ
Sivers Semiconductors is undervalued because its photonics subsidiary's valuation potential is likely grossly mispriced, though that unit deserves a hefty discount until listed. Sivers Photonics failed to list via a SPAC in 2024, even early in the AI boom; the main wireless business is boring; and unlisted subsidiaries trade at deep discounts until holders see a path to monetization. Per @aleabitoreddit, Sivers, a laser maker for hyperscaler photonic supply chains, is valued at only about $200M. … Show more
Sivers Semiconductors' $30M expansion of its Glasgow InP fab, targeting over 100M CW DFB lasers a year by Q4 2027, likely means hard dilution. As @PhotonCap notes, the plan shifts Sivers toward hybrid manufacturing, and its capacity target and customer ramps remain forward-looking rather than committed volumes. x.comÂ
Sivers Semiconductors' supposed bottleneck isn't really a bottleneck but a wide-open gap with a lot of fantasy priced in; the stock is now down 70% from its recent high. x.comÂ
Sivers Semiconductors' CEO buying stock is a bullish signal. @napoleon21st notes the CEO just bought over a quarter million dollars' worth. Insider buys tend to be bullish, while insider sells are not necessarily bearish because insiders sell for many personal reasons; neither is a clear signal, much as options flow reveals positioning without revealing intent. x.com x.comÂ
Sivers Semiconductors' valuation is hard to justify even on its most ambitious targets for the next 1-3 years, given the margins it has and will have. Its most interesting angle is private companies such as Lightmatter apparently using its CW laser arrays, though that is not officially confirmed. Lumentum and Coherent, while not exact peers, are preferred. x.comÂ
Sivers still looks unrealistically expensive even though the optical market's TAM has grown far more. Plugging the Goldman Sachs photonics report into models still leaves it overvalued. x.comÂ
Aeva's move into NPO/CPO is highly bullish for Sivers, again at the center of photonics through its CW-DFB lasers. Sivers is regarded as Aeva's laser supplier, and Aeva signed a joint development deal with an optical engine maker for a major hyperscaler, deploying in 2H27 and ramping in 2028. Per @ParadisLabs, Sivers partner GlobalFoundries expects silicon photonics revenue to more than double in 2026, with NPO ramping in 2027 and CPO in 2028. Jane Street closed its Sivers short. x.com x.com … Show more
Sivers Semiconductors is in a bear-market correction as the sentiment bubble from its CPO and AI-optics rally deflates. The stock surged over tenfold, led by retail trader Serenity's top holding, and has since fallen more than 70% as investors lock in profits and small-cap thematic plays fall out of favor. $3 is the core support; a high-volume close below it that isn't reclaimed would open deeper losses toward $1.8, while holding $3 could allow a bounce to $4.2-4.8. x.comÂ
