degentrading
Former TradFi Options Market Maker, Delegate at Lido DAO
Software stocks should keep grinding higher as the market reduces the AI fear factor. Much of the software rally since the April lows was just erasing past losses, and many names remain well below their all-time highs. Since those lows, software has risen almost as much as semiconductors with about 10x less noise. x.comÂ
Software stocks may benefit from the AI displacement trade's complete reversal through 2026: instead of AI supposedly displacing traditional software companies, software companies could potentially displace the AI trade itself. x.comÂ
The software selloff looks overdone, as AI seems to be creating dispersion rather than killing software. All 13 S&P 500 software companies that have reported so far beat EPS estimates, and software stocks are up about 40% from their April lows. x.comÂ
The rally in US software stocks is really long in the tooth, if anyone is still left who believes AI alternatives run by one- or two-person shops can cannibalize a lot of software. x.comÂ
Software holds the best value in a market of overbought, problematic AI trades, and sentiment toward it is quickly turning bullish. Even long-avoided Oracle could warrant a starter position on a dip into the $141-137 buy range, or on a close above the $147.5 support-resistance flip. Microsoft, Cloudflare, Adobe and ServiceNow are among the software names in focus. x.com x.comÂ
SaaS will have its time in the sun again, and now, while it is still hated, is the time to pick favorites and build positions. Bearish sector narratives don't last forever, and the view that all SaaS is being disrupted should ease somewhat this summer, though multiples may not return to prior levels. Some SaaS names have little moat against Anthropic and peers, but many, especially cybersecurity and Palantir, are strengthened by the agentic push. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Software stocks keep getting sold off even as software revenues keep climbing. x.comÂ
Software looks like a group that can lead the market higher, with many names from Palantir and ServiceNow to Zeta and MongoDB moving from late Stage 4 or Stage 1 into early Stage 2 uptrends. Sentiment is at an all-time low on fears that AI agents and chatbots will replace SaaS. AI will disrupt some areas, but many software businesses are using it to grow revenue, ship faster and expand operating leverage, and will thrive. The charts will separate survivors from the dead. x.com x.comÂ
Software stocks are becoming the next leadership group, as the functional layer of AI turns hardware investment into real-world outcomes. Software is now leading hyperscalers and crypto, a sign the market is correcting its mispricing of the AI timeline. Those outcomes are still in the first inning, and significant acceleration is expected. x.comÂ
Software is nowhere near a floor because AI has broken the assumption behind the sector's premium: very long-duration, highly recurring revenue. Competition is intensifying, new products such as Anthropic's suite far outperform incumbents like Microsoft Copilot, and AI natives move faster without legacy constraints. Accounting flatters results, with Snowflake's SBC above its CY25 free cash flow. Even at 30x GAAP earnings most names have downside, versus Alphabet at 23x and Nvidia at 14x. x.com … Show more
Software stocks look poised to rebound after being deeply oversold, with the data turning bullish. Breadth across 41 software names flipped from under 5% to 82.5% above their 10-day averages in three weeks, oversold readings hit 90.1 and stress eased to 35.6. Models put the 3-day probability of a rise at 85% and the 20-day crash probability at just 6.5%, with six of nine models bullish and global liquidity supportive. Leaders include Oracle, AppLovin and Microsoft. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
