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Deep Inference

Partner at Aion Analytics, Quantitative Markets Research

16 Apr, 13:03Latest

Software stocks look poised to rebound after being deeply oversold, with the data turning bullish. Breadth across 41 software names flipped from under 5% to 82.5% above their 10-day averages in three weeks, oversold readings hit 90.1 and stress eased to 35.6. Models put the 3-day probability of a rise at 85% and the 20-day crash probability at just 6.5%, with six of nine models bullish and global liquidity supportive. Leaders include Oracle, AppLovin and Microsoft. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

IGV

10 Apr, 13:11

Software stocks remain in a crash regime: 8 of 9 models are bearish, with a 46.7% crash probability and stress at 83. No software stocks are making new highs on any timeframe, 75% are at new 4-week lows and only 5% are above their 20-day average, after average drawdowns of 45.5%. With oversold readings near 95 and liquidity turning long and rising daily, the sector should eventually snap back hard. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

IGV

The Inflection Economy

Portfolio Managers at Logos LP

25 Aug

IGV

The software selloff looks overdone, as AI seems to be creating dispersion rather than killing software. All 13 S&P 500 software companies that have reported so far beat EPS estimates, and software stocks are up about 40% from their April lows. x.com

Brad Freeman

Equity Researcher, Creator of Stock Market Nerd

6 Aug

IGV

Software is flexing its muscles, showing AI is not killing the sector. Twilio, Atlassian, Cloudflare and JFrog all showed better-than-expected fundamental strength, setting software up for a strong session. x.com x.com

Waterworld Capital

Public Markets Commentary

28 Aug

IGV

Software stocks have no real bull case; their recent strength is purely positioning-driven, so after perhaps a couple more weeks of gains they should resume falling. x.com

Dr. Stoxx

Stock Trader & Author, Oxford DPhil, Trading Education

2 Jul

IGV

Software holds the best value in a market of overbought, problematic AI trades, and sentiment toward it is quickly turning bullish. Even long-avoided Oracle could warrant a starter position on a dip into the $141-137 buy range, or on a close above the $147.5 support-resistance flip. Microsoft, Cloudflare, Adobe and ServiceNow are among the software names in focus. x.com x.com

degentrading

Former TradFi Options Market Maker, Delegate at Lido DAO

2 Jun

IGV

Software stocks should keep grinding higher as the market reduces the AI fear factor. Much of the software rally since the April lows was just erasing past losses, and many names remain well below their all-time highs. Since those lows, software has risen almost as much as semiconductors with about 10x less noise. x.com

TrendSpider

Trading Platform, Charting/Scanning/Backtesting, Alerts/Bots & Options Flow

25 May

IGV

Software stocks keep getting sold off even as software revenues keep climbing. x.com

Venu

Position Trader, Market Leaders, Fundamental/Technical Analysis

15 Oct

NOW

SAP

PLTR

SHOP

CRM

Software's relative strength and sound finances make institutional rotation from semis plausible. It could lead while semis consolidate, despite slow growth at some firms; the market rewards cash flow, healthy balance sheets and manageable debt. Salesforce, ServiceNow, Palantir, Shopify and Workday hold up; SAP's cloud and AI shift, Instacart's massive 10-month base, Veeva's massive five-year base and Atlassian's Stage 2 strength add to the case. Semis may still rally; the view can change. x.com … Show more

Dray

Finance Student, Stock Investor, Technology & Business

23 Oct

NVDA

ORCL

TSM

VST

NOK

WDC

UBER

APP

AXP

AVGO

FPS

Low forward earnings multiples across eleven stocks cannot persist indefinitely. Nvidia trades near 17.5x, its lowest in over a decade; Oracle near 15x, its lowest in six years. Uber is at 17x, Broadcom 19x, Vistra 15x, AppLovin 14.5x, TSMC 19x, Forgent Power Solutions 18x, Nokia 19.5x, American Express 17x and Western Digital 14x. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com

Evergreen Capital

Technology Investor, Semiconductors & AI Infrastructure

11 Apr

IGV

Software is nowhere near a floor because AI has broken the assumption behind the sector's premium: very long-duration, highly recurring revenue. Competition is intensifying, new products such as Anthropic's suite far outperform incumbents like Microsoft Copilot, and AI natives move faster without legacy constraints. Accounting flatters results, with Snowflake's SBC above its CY25 free cash flow. Even at 30x GAAP earnings most names have downside, versus Alphabet at 23x and Nvidia at 14x. x.com … Show more

Philip

Founder & CEO of Intrinsiqq, Value & Growth Investor

24 Oct

CCJ

SYM

APP

AMD

These 12 stocks offer exposure to AI, automation, health care, consumer growth and nuclear demand. AMD makes AI chips; Oracle builds AI cloud; Vertex has multiple drug opportunities. Arista supplies data-center switches, KLA inspection tools and Cadence chip-design tools. Palantir sells AI platforms; Symbotic automates warehouses; Alphabet spans search, cloud and AI. Celsius has US consumer momentum, AppLovin runs high-margin mobile ads, and Cameco mines uranium and co-owns Westinghouse. x.com … Show more

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