Brad Freeman
Equity Researcher, Creator of Stock Market Nerd
Scaled enterprise software platforms still own the sustainable edge in AI because they gatekeep proprietary data. As models become more alike, data is the real differentiator, and companies are realizing they were handing that edge to frontier labs willing to compete with them directly, as with Figma. Models need constant instruction to be useful, and software firms have the tools and context to turn AI into reliable use cases, not hallucinations, provided they stop sharing data freely. x.com x.comÂ
Software's relative strength and sound finances make institutional rotation from semis plausible. It could lead while semis consolidate, despite slow growth at some firms; the market rewards cash flow, healthy balance sheets and manageable debt. Salesforce, ServiceNow, Palantir, Shopify and Workday hold up; SAP's cloud and AI shift, Instacart's massive 10-month base, Veeva's massive five-year base and Atlassian's Stage 2 strength add to the case. Semis may still rally; the view can change. x.com … Show more
Software stocks are set to rip higher on the news shared in the post. x.comÂ
Software stocks keep getting sold off even as software revenues keep climbing. x.comÂ
Software stocks look poised to rebound after being deeply oversold, with the data turning bullish. Breadth across 41 software names flipped from under 5% to 82.5% above their 10-day averages in three weeks, oversold readings hit 90.1 and stress eased to 35.6. Models put the 3-day probability of a rise at 85% and the 20-day crash probability at just 6.5%, with six of nine models bullish and global liquidity supportive. Leaders include Oracle, AppLovin and Microsoft. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
The software selloff looks overdone, as AI seems to be creating dispersion rather than killing software. All 13 S&P 500 software companies that have reported so far beat EPS estimates, and software stocks are up about 40% from their April lows. x.comÂ
The rally in US software stocks is really long in the tooth, if anyone is still left who believes AI alternatives run by one- or two-person shops can cannibalize a lot of software. x.comÂ
AI-using software platforms such as Datadog, Snowflake, JFrog and CrowdStrike are still winning and should never have been caught in the SaaS selloff. The damage has mostly hit legacy application-software names. x.comÂ
Atlassian got too cheap at 2x next-12-month revenue going into earnings and could re-rate to 4-5x, even after a 24% jump that still leaves it 85% below its highs. AI may pressure such companies, but that isn't showing up yet, and the market may be wrong that they won't adapt; some will get stronger by integrating AI. After $114, $139, the February 2025 VWAP and about 5x forward revenue, is a reasonable target. x.com x.comÂ
Software stocks probably have a floor as results challenge fears that AI agents will displace them. Since the June 22 momentum unwind, IGV is up 25% and the SOX index down 22%. Atlassian and Salesforce jumped on solid results, plus an Anthropic deal for Salesforce, and possible Silver Lake interest lifted Workday. A new bullish twist says agents will use software tools 10-100x more than humans. Whether fundamentals back the rally is still open; a likely Fed hike and weak September are risks. … Show more
Software stocks may benefit from the AI displacement trade's complete reversal through 2026: instead of AI supposedly displacing traditional software companies, software companies could potentially displace the AI trade itself. x.comÂ