Simplifying Stocks, CPA
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Software is flexing its muscles, showing AI is not killing the sector. Twilio, Atlassian, Cloudflare and JFrog all showed better-than-expected fundamental strength, setting software up for a strong session. x.com x.comÂ
The software selloff looks overdone, as AI seems to be creating dispersion rather than killing software. All 13 S&P 500 software companies that have reported so far beat EPS estimates, and software stocks are up about 40% from their April lows. x.comÂ
Software stocks keep getting sold off even as software revenues keep climbing. x.comÂ
Software stocks probably have a floor as results challenge fears that AI agents will displace them. Since the June 22 momentum unwind, IGV is up 25% and the SOX index down 22%. Atlassian and Salesforce jumped on solid results, plus an Anthropic deal for Salesforce, and possible Silver Lake interest lifted Workday. A new bullish twist says agents will use software tools 10-100x more than humans. Whether fundamentals back the rally is still open; a likely Fed hike and weak September are risks. … Show more
Software stocks are becoming the next leadership group, as the functional layer of AI turns hardware investment into real-world outcomes. Software is now leading hyperscalers and crypto, a sign the market is correcting its mispricing of the AI timeline. Those outcomes are still in the first inning, and significant acceleration is expected. x.comÂ
SpaceX's AI business and profitable growth challenge calls for its stock to go much lower. Q3 revenue reached $14.6B, up 161%, with $4.4B profit and $7.6B from AI. A Tesla merger is being discussed. x.comÂ
Debt-funded AI building is making tech stocks vulnerable to a 25-30% pullback as rates and energy prices rise. AI company borrowing reached $466B this year versus $101B a year earlier; weekly default-insurance trading on seven AI names rose from under $2B in July to over $9B in September. Keep cash for lower prices, though 30% earnings growth and a 19x market multiple argue this is not an AI bubble. x.comÂ
Software stocks look poised to rebound after being deeply oversold, with the data turning bullish. Breadth across 41 software names flipped from under 5% to 82.5% above their 10-day averages in three weeks, oversold readings hit 90.1 and stress eased to 35.6. Models put the 3-day probability of a rise at 85% and the 20-day crash probability at just 6.5%, with six of nine models bullish and global liquidity supportive. Leaders include Oracle, AppLovin and Microsoft. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Software stocks look set to benefit as the market signals that open-weight models will help software and that AI extinction risk was overblown, with AI instead a net positive for growth and margins in coming years. The cloud software ETF is becoming one of the best-looking charts in the market and is close to clearing $37 resistance and a volume shelf. x.comÂ
Software stocks such as Adobe sold off on a threat that was never real: the AI labs' internal plans to compete with them were delusional and never a real possibility. x.comÂ