Tech and semiconductor bounces are mainly driven by less urgent hedge-fund selling rather than fresh buying. Per Goldman Sachs, tech is still being sold amid very low activity; there is no sign risk has been added yet. The unwind may be nearing its end, especially as hyperscalers stick to capex plans and Q3 semiconductor earnings look likely to be positive. Less crowded positioning and more normal multiples leave a healthier base for a longer-term rebuild. x.com 

Anthropic's S-1 and @UncleAlpha007's claim that Microsoft is growing despite a 27% headcount cut have turned the near-term tech-equity view bullish. At least a tradable rally is expected; further upside depends on Iran developments and PCE. Stay nimble. x.com  x.com 

Software stocks look poised to rebound after being deeply oversold, with the data turning bullish. Breadth across 41 software names flipped from under 5% to 82.5% above their 10-day averages in three weeks, oversold readings hit 90.1 and stress eased to 35.6. Models put the 3-day probability of a rise at 85% and the 20-day crash probability at just 6.5%, with six of nine models bullish and global liquidity supportive. Leaders include Oracle, AppLovin and Microsoft. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Software's relative strength and sound finances make institutional rotation from semis plausible. It could lead while semis consolidate, despite slow growth at some firms; the market rewards cash flow, healthy balance sheets and manageable debt. Salesforce, ServiceNow, Palantir, Shopify and Workday hold up; SAP's cloud and AI shift, Instacart's massive 10-month base, Veeva's massive five-year base and Atlassian's Stage 2 strength add to the case. Semis may still rally; the view can change. x.com  … Show more

The software selloff will last a while unless software companies invest to accelerate revenue growth, from 10% to 20-25% or from 20% to 30-40%, which will not be easy. Sentiment should change at some point. x.com 

Software holds the best value in a market of overbought, problematic AI trades, and sentiment toward it is quickly turning bullish. Even long-avoided Oracle could warrant a starter position on a dip into the $141-137 buy range, or on a close above the $147.5 support-resistance flip. Microsoft, Cloudflare, Adobe and ServiceNow are among the software names in focus. x.com  x.com 

Software stocks keep getting sold off even as software revenues keep climbing. x.com 

The rally in US software stocks is really long in the tooth, if anyone is still left who believes AI alternatives run by one- or two-person shops can cannibalize a lot of software. x.com 

The software selloff looks overdone, as AI seems to be creating dispersion rather than killing software. All 13 S&P 500 software companies that have reported so far beat EPS estimates, and software stocks are up about 40% from their April lows. x.com 

Semiconductors look set to outperform software. Hedge funds are simultaneously the most overweight semis and most underweight software in a decade, and last year's compression in software valuations made that signal impossible to ignore. Within chips, photonics, memory and CPUs are the favored areas. x.com