Micron looks expensive on price-to-book at about 8x versus a historical average of about 2x, and relying on forward P/E for such a cyclical business can be dangerous. x.com 

Micron is a cyclical, and cyclicals should never be bought at low P/Es and record earnings. x.com  x.com 

Micron looks quite cheap despite pulling back after an incredible earnings report, as one of only seven US companies over $10B with a forward P/E under 10 and 25%+ two-year revenue growth. Micron and Sandisk are cyclical, but each expects about 100% revenue CAGR over the next two years. They may not deserve 30-40x forward P/Es, but assigning a single-digit P/E is crazy. x.com  x.com 

If Micron has only two years of decent forecasts, its limited visibility warrants a lower multiple, not a higher one. x.com 

Micron sits firmly in the too-hard pile because there is no clear view of what its earnings will look like three to five years from now. Memory stocks are simply not a fit here, with no criticism of memory investors. x.com 

Micron is finally being re-rated after years of persistent doubt, with a price around $1,000 expected as the final sale level. It earns over $80 per share and has moved from the 5x P/E it held for years on cyclicality fears to about 10x. It will probably revert to a cyclical business at some point, but that is hard to see unless a black swan event approaches. x.com 

Micron is a cyclical, and if DRAM sells at cash cost at any point in the next 15 years, which is likely over that span, owners will be in deep trouble. The historical playbook is to buy memory when it looks bleak and sell when it looks rosy. When take-or-pay contracts showed up in past industries, prices often fell within 18 months and the stocks dropped as spot prices fell. @BeenThereCap counters that Micron is on pace to earn its market cap in cash within eight years. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Micron is too risky to own long term because memory is one of the most cyclical parts of the AI trade. Its margins are hard to forecast, so memory, like neoclouds, deserves a low multiple until it proves it can run a sustainable business through cycles, despite immense upside. Micron belongs in the too-hard pile: worth swing trading at opportune times, not holding long term or in real size. x.com  x.com 

Micron deserves 10-12x forward earnings rather than 6.2x, and its latest quarter only strengthened the bull case. Revenue reached $54.23B, up 379% year over year, and EPS $33.42, up 1,003%; next-quarter guidance is $62B revenue and $38.15 EPS versus estimates of $58B and $35.92. The market fears growth and demand could suddenly stop, but no one can time when or if that happens, whether in 1, 2, 3 or 5 years. It might not deserve 20x. x.com 

Micron's record run looks like the top of a cycle, with retail chasing narrative rather than inputs. It doubled from $500B to $1T in 48 trading days, the fastest ever, after an 850% gain in 12 months and a UBS target hike from $535 to $1,625. JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon named Micron as a sign of market exuberance, also flagging record-low credit spreads and possible 4% inflation. Earnings are growing, with a 0.07 PEG ratio, but stocks that double this fast get repriced violently when rotation comes. … Show more