Wheat is breaking out on the weekly chart, with cycles up and fundamentals supportive, since exploding fertilizer prices mean lower crop yields and higher agricultural prices. A major cycle low likely formed in October 2025, and a new up wave tracking the 2022 pattern is expected to last into 2027; war also tends to lift inflation and food prices. x.com 

CF Industries should surge as the Middle East crisis cuts fertilizer supply just as planting demand peaks. Roughly a third of the world's fertilizer moves through the Strait of Hormuz, winter planting is starting, and farmers cannot delay, so they must pay whatever the price is. Surging gas prices also raise production costs. The stock pulled back as the market priced in the strait reopening, which has not happened, and could reach $150 short term. Oil is the obvious, mostly priced trade. x.com  … Show more

Bunge's chart looks like gold and energy did before they ripped, and the Hormuz disruption to fertilizer trade puts one of the world's largest agribusinesses in focus. Hormuz is choking about 30% of global fertilizer trade and half of the world's urea exports. x.com 

Food inflation is about to skyrocket within months, lifting agricultural commodities. Per @kannbwx, poor crop health and a record-low planted area mean the US will produce its smallest wheat crop since 1972. The economy offsets excess central bank balance sheets through energy, food and shelter inflation, and a Strait of Hormuz disruption to 20% of oil supply implies a comparable GDP hit, with food inflation adding more. x.com 

CF Industries, Nutrien, Mosaic and ICL Group are poor long-term holdings despite surging 10-30% on the Hormuz-driven urea spike. Fertilizer shares Maersk's flaws of cyclicality, weak capital allocation and no economic moat, and amplifies them. Demand follows farmer budgets: when crop prices are high farmers splurge on inputs, and when crops fall they cut back. Urea's 80% jump to $730 a ton reflects a supply shock as Gulf exports are cut off, not a durable advantage. x.com 

Agricultural commodity prices should rise because a lack of fertilizer means lower crop yields. Cycles are up, wheat is breaking out on the weekly chart and agris look excellent across the board. Adecoagro could make a multi-quarter, multi-fold move once it breaks out of a 15.5-year base; it closed above its 200-day average after a likely five-year cycle low in December 2025. Above heavy supply near $12 it likely returns to its $16 high, while losing $8.88 could mean a retest of the lows. x.com 

Crude oil faces a return of the glut. Per @JavierBlas, the IEA's first look at 2027 sees too much oil again by this time next year, as Hormuz is expected to reopen, though the agency warns of higher-than-normal uncertainty in its supply and demand forecasts. x.com 

Crude oil looks set to fall as Persian Gulf exports recover. Per The Kobeissi Letter, Gulf crude exports topped 14 million barrels per day last week for the first time since the Iran War began on February 28, up over 210% from the March low and back to about 80% of pre-war levels, as the US military secures the Strait of Hormuz with a shipping corridor along Oman. If that holds true, the bearish oil view pays off. x.com 

Crude oil now has more room to fall on a deal headline than to rise on the status quo, as Trump's rejection of Iran's seven-day Hormuz plan looks like a negotiating position, with negotiators due back this week and the Saudi foreign minister in Washington. The closed Strait put Brent back at $108 with Nov–Dec backwardation near $8. Speculators added shorts three weeks running, squeeze fuel above $100 if talks fail; a deal would leave about 101,828 contracts of net length as supply. x.com  x.com 

Mosaic is a catch-up play to the rest of fertilizers, since energy, fertilizers, grains and chemicals should all skyrocket while the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. April 2025 was likely a 4-5 year cycle low, and the stock has made a weekly breakout and retest, with multi-x upside possible over the next few years. More basing in mid-2026, possibly undercutting $20, could still come; daily strength and a close above the 50-day average would confirm. x.com