Mosaic is being crushed by the very fertilizer crisis that lifts fertilizer prices, because the Strait of Hormuz blockade is blowing up its input costs. Phosphate fertilizers need lots of sulfuric acid, and 44% of the world's seaborne sulfur exports pass through Hormuz. With the strait shut, sulfur prices have spiked even harder than fertilizer prices, presumably worldwide. Bank analysts have lowered Mosaic's 2026 EBITDA estimates, and the stock fell 20% in a week to near six-year lows. x.com  … Show more

AdvanSix is an under-the-radar way to profit from a Strait of Hormuz shutdown, because its US plants run on cheap domestic natural gas while overseas fertilizer and chemical rivals face soaring feedstock costs. The shutdown cuts off seaborne gas and fertilizer trade just as spring planting begins, when demand for its ammonium sulfate is inelastic. As European and Asian rivals cut output, AdvanSix can take share at peak prices. Per the WSJ, reducing the Iran threat could take a month or more. … Show more

North American nitrogen producers win big from the Hormuz blockade, running on $3 Henry Hub gas while European and Asian rivals pay $50-plus. The blockade removes about 25% of seaborne urea at peak spring planting, and farmer demand is inelastic. CF Industries earns outsized margins as urea nears $800 a ton. CVR Partners pays out nearly all cash flow as UAN prices jump 45%. Nutrien gains pricing power through 2,000-plus retail sites. Low April applications should keep prices high into 2027. … Show more

Sulfur and nitrogen prices should keep climbing, with one in four US farmers facing a fertilizer shortage this season. Per a post the author replies to, Ecovyst's earnings should soar as the only US-listed pure play on sulfuric acid, and LSB Industries is also a reasonable choice; both are good picks. x.com 

Bunge's chart looks like gold and energy did before they ripped, and the Hormuz disruption to fertilizer trade puts one of the world's largest agribusinesses in focus. Hormuz is choking about 30% of global fertilizer trade and half of the world's urea exports. x.com 

CF Industries is in prime position as long as the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted and Henry Hub natural gas prices stay benign. Fertilizer names are worth doing the work on, even after their run-up. x.com 

Agricultural commodity prices should rise because a lack of fertilizer means lower crop yields. Cycles are up, wheat is breaking out on the weekly chart and agris look excellent across the board. Adecoagro could make a multi-quarter, multi-fold move once it breaks out of a 15.5-year base; it closed above its 200-day average after a likely five-year cycle low in December 2025. Above heavy supply near $12 it likely returns to its $16 high, while losing $8.88 could mean a retest of the lows. x.com 

Wheat is breaking out on the weekly chart, with cycles up and fundamentals supportive, since exploding fertilizer prices mean lower crop yields and higher agricultural prices. A major cycle low likely formed in October 2025, and a new up wave tracking the 2022 pattern is expected to last into 2027; war also tends to lift inflation and food prices. x.com 

Nutrien is a great way to play supply disruptions in urea, ammonia, nitrogen and other fertilizer components. Demand is not going away, but constrained supply is pushing prices higher, which is good for profits. x.com 

Wheat and sugar are the commodities to hold into next year as the Strait of Hormuz fallout comes to a head. @tleilax___ notes Thailand, the world's second-largest sugar exporter, is barely getting any fertilizer. x.com