Nutrien is a great way to play supply disruptions in urea, ammonia, nitrogen and other fertilizer components. Demand is not going away, but constrained supply is pushing prices higher, which is good for profits. x.com 

CF Industries, Nutrien, Mosaic and ICL Group are poor long-term holdings despite surging 10-30% on the Hormuz-driven urea spike. Fertilizer shares Maersk's flaws of cyclicality, weak capital allocation and no economic moat, and amplifies them. Demand follows farmer budgets: when crop prices are high farmers splurge on inputs, and when crops fall they cut back. Urea's 80% jump to $730 a ton reflects a supply shock as Gulf exports are cut off, not a durable advantage. x.com 

North American nitrogen producers win big from the Hormuz blockade, running on $3 Henry Hub gas while European and Asian rivals pay $50-plus. The blockade removes about 25% of seaborne urea at peak spring planting, and farmer demand is inelastic. CF Industries earns outsized margins as urea nears $800 a ton. CVR Partners pays out nearly all cash flow as UAN prices jump 45%. Nutrien gains pricing power through 2,000-plus retail sites. Low April applications should keep prices high into 2027. … Show more

CF Industries should surge as the Middle East crisis cuts fertilizer supply just as planting demand peaks. Roughly a third of the world's fertilizer moves through the Strait of Hormuz, winter planting is starting, and farmers cannot delay, so they must pay whatever the price is. Surging gas prices also raise production costs. The stock pulled back as the market priced in the strait reopening, which has not happened, and could reach $150 short term. Oil is the obvious, mostly priced trade. x.com  … Show more

Nutrien's downgrade to sell by UBS comes in the middle of a fertilizer shortage, which makes the call look badly misjudged. x.com 

Mosaic is being crushed by the very fertilizer crisis that lifts fertilizer prices, because the Strait of Hormuz blockade is blowing up its input costs. Phosphate fertilizers need lots of sulfuric acid, and 44% of the world's seaborne sulfur exports pass through Hormuz. With the strait shut, sulfur prices have spiked even harder than fertilizer prices, presumably worldwide. Bank analysts have lowered Mosaic's 2026 EBITDA estimates, and the stock fell 20% in a week to near six-year lows. x.com  … Show more

CF Industries is in prime position as long as the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted and Henry Hub natural gas prices stay benign. Fertilizer names are worth doing the work on, even after their run-up. x.com 

Mosaic is a catch-up play to the rest of fertilizers, since energy, fertilizers, grains and chemicals should all skyrocket while the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. April 2025 was likely a 4-5 year cycle low, and the stock has made a weekly breakout and retest, with multi-x upside possible over the next few years. More basing in mid-2026, possibly undercutting $20, could still come; daily strength and a close above the 50-day average would confirm. x.com 

Food inflation is about to skyrocket within months, lifting agricultural commodities. Per @kannbwx, poor crop health and a record-low planted area mean the US will produce its smallest wheat crop since 1972. The economy offsets excess central bank balance sheets through energy, food and shelter inflation, and a Strait of Hormuz disruption to 20% of oil supply implies a comparable GDP hit, with food inflation adding more. x.com 

Bunge's chart looks like gold and energy did before they ripped, and the Hormuz disruption to fertilizer trade puts one of the world's largest agribusinesses in focus. Hormuz is choking about 30% of global fertilizer trade and half of the world's urea exports. x.com