Nutrien is a great way to play supply disruptions in urea, ammonia, nitrogen and other fertilizer components. Demand is not going away, but constrained supply is pushing prices higher, which is good for profits. x.com 

North American nitrogen producers win big from the Hormuz blockade, running on $3 Henry Hub gas while European and Asian rivals pay $50-plus. The blockade removes about 25% of seaborne urea at peak spring planting, and farmer demand is inelastic. CF Industries earns outsized margins as urea nears $800 a ton. CVR Partners pays out nearly all cash flow as UAN prices jump 45%. Nutrien gains pricing power through 2,000-plus retail sites. Low April applications should keep prices high into 2027. … Show more

CF Industries, Nutrien, Mosaic and ICL Group are poor long-term holdings despite surging 10-30% on the Hormuz-driven urea spike. Fertilizer shares Maersk's flaws of cyclicality, weak capital allocation and no economic moat, and amplifies them. Demand follows farmer budgets: when crop prices are high farmers splurge on inputs, and when crops fall they cut back. Urea's 80% jump to $730 a ton reflects a supply shock as Gulf exports are cut off, not a durable advantage. x.com 

Agricultural commodity prices should rise because a lack of fertilizer means lower crop yields. Cycles are up, wheat is breaking out on the weekly chart and agris look excellent across the board. Adecoagro could make a multi-quarter, multi-fold move once it breaks out of a 15.5-year base; it closed above its 200-day average after a likely five-year cycle low in December 2025. Above heavy supply near $12 it likely returns to its $16 high, while losing $8.88 could mean a retest of the lows. x.com 

Sulfur and nitrogen prices should keep climbing, with one in four US farmers facing a fertilizer shortage this season. Per a post the author replies to, Ecovyst's earnings should soar as the only US-listed pure play on sulfuric acid, and LSB Industries is also a reasonable choice; both are good picks. x.com 

CF Industries should surge as the Middle East crisis cuts fertilizer supply just as planting demand peaks. Roughly a third of the world's fertilizer moves through the Strait of Hormuz, winter planting is starting, and farmers cannot delay, so they must pay whatever the price is. Surging gas prices also raise production costs. The stock pulled back as the market priced in the strait reopening, which has not happened, and could reach $150 short term. Oil is the obvious, mostly priced trade. x.com  … Show more

Bunge's chart looks like gold and energy did before they ripped, and the Hormuz disruption to fertilizer trade puts one of the world's largest agribusinesses in focus. Hormuz is choking about 30% of global fertilizer trade and half of the world's urea exports. x.com 

The Hormuz-driven fertilizer shortage could flood the market with used machinery and undercut Deere's new equipment sales. Farmers who can't source or afford fertilizer plant less and get lower output with higher costs, so they defer purchases or sell equipment to raise cash. A used-equipment glut would collapse used prices, cannibalize new sales and force residual-value writedowns in Deere's financing book, as in the long 2014-16 ag downturn. Management's trough-and-recovery call ignores this. … Show more

AdvanSix is an under-the-radar way to profit from a Strait of Hormuz shutdown, because its US plants run on cheap domestic natural gas while overseas fertilizer and chemical rivals face soaring feedstock costs. The shutdown cuts off seaborne gas and fertilizer trade just as spring planting begins, when demand for its ammonium sulfate is inelastic. As European and Asian rivals cut output, AdvanSix can take share at peak prices. Per the WSJ, reducing the Iran threat could take a month or more. … Show more

Wheat is breaking out on the weekly chart, with cycles up and fundamentals supportive, since exploding fertilizer prices mean lower crop yields and higher agricultural prices. A major cycle low likely formed in October 2025, and a new up wave tracking the 2022 pattern is expected to last into 2027; war also tends to lift inflation and food prices. x.com