CF Industries, Nutrien, Mosaic and ICL Group are poor long-term holdings despite surging 10-30% on the Hormuz-driven urea spike. Fertilizer shares Maersk's flaws of cyclicality, weak capital allocation and no economic moat, and amplifies them. Demand follows farmer budgets: when crop prices are high farmers splurge on inputs, and when crops fall they cut back. Urea's 80% jump to $730 a ton reflects a supply shock as Gulf exports are cut off, not a durable advantage. x.com 

CF Industries should surge as the Middle East crisis cuts fertilizer supply just as planting demand peaks. Roughly a third of the world's fertilizer moves through the Strait of Hormuz, winter planting is starting, and farmers cannot delay, so they must pay whatever the price is. Surging gas prices also raise production costs. The stock pulled back as the market priced in the strait reopening, which has not happened, and could reach $150 short term. Oil is the obvious, mostly priced trade. x.com  … Show more

Mosaic is a catch-up play to the rest of fertilizers, since energy, fertilizers, grains and chemicals should all skyrocket while the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. April 2025 was likely a 4-5 year cycle low, and the stock has made a weekly breakout and retest, with multi-x upside possible over the next few years. More basing in mid-2026, possibly undercutting $20, could still come; daily strength and a close above the 50-day average would confirm. x.com 

CF Industries is in prime position as long as the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted and Henry Hub natural gas prices stay benign. Fertilizer names are worth doing the work on, even after their run-up. x.com 

AdvanSix is an under-the-radar way to profit from a Strait of Hormuz shutdown, because its US plants run on cheap domestic natural gas while overseas fertilizer and chemical rivals face soaring feedstock costs. The shutdown cuts off seaborne gas and fertilizer trade just as spring planting begins, when demand for its ammonium sulfate is inelastic. As European and Asian rivals cut output, AdvanSix can take share at peak prices. Per the WSJ, reducing the Iran threat could take a month or more. … Show more

Mosaic is a hedge against widespread famine and a massive fertilizer shortage. x.com 

Tronox and Chemours stand to gain as the global sulfur market tightens further. Per @robert_ivanhoe, Russia has halted exports of Kazakh sulfur through its ports on top of banning its own sulfur exports, and Morocco's state fertilizer producer OCP is cutting production 30% for lack of sulfur or sulfuric acid. x.com 

Sulfur and nitrogen prices should keep climbing, with one in four US farmers facing a fertilizer shortage this season. Per a post the author replies to, Ecovyst's earnings should soar as the only US-listed pure play on sulfuric acid, and LSB Industries is also a reasonable choice; both are good picks. x.com 

Mosaic is a must-own because, per management, corn above $5 changes farmer economics. @PeterLBrandt reports an unusually heavy long position in grains, including corn, soybeans, meal and Kansas City wheat. x.com 

North American nitrogen producers win big from the Hormuz blockade, running on $3 Henry Hub gas while European and Asian rivals pay $50-plus. The blockade removes about 25% of seaborne urea at peak spring planting, and farmer demand is inelastic. CF Industries earns outsized margins as urea nears $800 a ton. CVR Partners pays out nearly all cash flow as UAN prices jump 45%. Nutrien gains pricing power through 2,000-plus retail sites. Low April applications should keep prices high into 2027. … Show more