Aggressive Value
Deep-Value & Asymmetric Investor, 25 Years in Markets
Tronox and Chemours stand to gain as the global sulfur market tightens further. Per @robert_ivanhoe, Russia has halted exports of Kazakh sulfur through its ports on top of banning its own sulfur exports, and Morocco's state fertilizer producer OCP is cutting production 30% for lack of sulfur or sulfuric acid. x.comÂ
Chemours could be a surprise winner from the Iran conflict because its chloride-process titanium dioxide is insulated from the sulfur spike. Gulf states supply about 45% of global sulfur, and China holds about 60% of TiO2 capacity, about 80% of it sulfate process needing over 4 tons of sulfuric acid per ton of pigment. A Chinese cost shock could bring curtailments, tighter supply and firmer pricing, and with Chemours' TiO2 unit at trough margins, every dollar of price falls straight through. … Show more
Chemours' pitch may finally work as several drivers line up for a low-cost producer at a cheap valuation. It shares a refrigerant duopoly with newly public peer SOLS, TiO2 is coming off the bottom, and Iran-related sulphur disruption tightens Chinese competition. PFAS resolution and AI liquid cooling, a call option now near the money, add upside; the price target is $45-50 even without cooling. x.comÂ
Chinese copper smelters should benefit as sulfuric acid prices keep rising, because acid by-product income props up smelting while treatment and refining charges sit near or below zero. Per @DeItaone, China signaled it will halt sulfuric acid exports from May. By profit sensitivity to each 100-yuan rise in acid, Yunnan Copper ranks ahead of Tongling Nonferrous and Jiangxi Copper. Yunnan's risk is low ore self-sufficiency, about 4%, half its peers', if expansion pushes charges more negative. … Show more
Chemours and Solstice Advanced Materials are the chemistry chokepoint for two-phase and immersion cooling, a Western duopoly whose fluids become a recurring consumable if those methods scale. Chemours' Opteon is one of two credible Western two-phase chemistries; it is cheap for real reasons, with PFAS liabilities, a 2024 accounting probe and high leverage, but the risk-reward is interesting. Solstice, the Honeywell spinoff, is the cleaner pure play, adding capacity with backlog over $2 billion. … Show more
Mosaic is being crushed by the very fertilizer crisis that lifts fertilizer prices, because the Strait of Hormuz blockade is blowing up its input costs. Phosphate fertilizers need lots of sulfuric acid, and 44% of the world's seaborne sulfur exports pass through Hormuz. With the strait shut, sulfur prices have spiked even harder than fertilizer prices, presumably worldwide. Bank analysts have lowered Mosaic's 2026 EBITDA estimates, and the stock fell 20% in a week to near six-year lows. x.com … Show more
Chemours stands to gain the most from an EPA rollback of PFAS restrictions as part of a secure Western supply chain. Fluoropolymers remain the most effective dielectric fluids and will dominate market share once they are re-approved. x.comÂ
Uranium supply concentration risk is structurally underpriced, as one sulfuric acid plant at a third-party mill can halt one of the world's largest high-grade mines. Per @AlLouigi, Cameco suspended Cigar Lake due to acid plant issues at Orano's McClean Lake mill, expecting a restart in about two weeks while holding its 2026 outlook. AI power demand and SMR buildout make uranium a multi-decade story. x.comÂ
AdvanSix is an under-the-radar way to profit from a Strait of Hormuz shutdown, because its US plants run on cheap domestic natural gas while overseas fertilizer and chemical rivals face soaring feedstock costs. The shutdown cuts off seaborne gas and fertilizer trade just as spring planting begins, when demand for its ammonium sulfate is inelastic. As European and Asian rivals cut output, AdvanSix can take share at peak prices. Per the WSJ, reducing the Iran threat could take a month or more. … Show more
Sulfur and nitrogen prices should keep climbing, with one in four US farmers facing a fertilizer shortage this season. Per a post the author replies to, Ecovyst's earnings should soar as the only US-listed pure play on sulfuric acid, and LSB Industries is also a reasonable choice; both are good picks. x.comÂ
CF Industries, Nutrien, Mosaic and ICL Group are poor long-term holdings despite surging 10-30% on the Hormuz-driven urea spike. Fertilizer shares Maersk's flaws of cyclicality, weak capital allocation and no economic moat, and amplifies them. Demand follows farmer budgets: when crop prices are high farmers splurge on inputs, and when crops fall they cut back. Urea's 80% jump to $730 a ton reflects a supply shock as Gulf exports are cut off, not a durable advantage. x.comÂ
