Record copper import premiums signal imminent supply shortages. @robert_ivanhoe reports that the Yangshan premium broke its record, indicating scarce near-term supply in China. An Ivan Bebek chart using International Copper Study Group data shows preliminary global mine output down 1% year on year in January-July 2026, after eight straight years of growth. x.com  x.com 

Tronox and Chemours stand to gain as the global sulfur market tightens further. Per @robert_ivanhoe, Russia has halted exports of Kazakh sulfur through its ports on top of banning its own sulfur exports, and Morocco's state fertilizer producer OCP is cutting production 30% for lack of sulfur or sulfuric acid. x.com 

Copper miners have a long-term supply case because major copper discoveries have dried up. The world will face a very large copper imbalance as the years pass. x.com 

Southern Copper is outperforming copper itself thanks to operating leverage, as AI and grid demand push copper toward a widening deficit. Copper gained about 50% over the past year to a record near $14,545 per tonne in August, supported by demand from AI data centers and power grid expansion, while major producers cut output, pushing the market toward a deficit expected to widen through 2030. Southern Copper has the highest momentum rating among US mega-caps. x.com 

Chemours could be a surprise winner from the Iran conflict because its chloride-process titanium dioxide is insulated from the sulfur spike. Gulf states supply about 45% of global sulfur, and China holds about 60% of TiO2 capacity, about 80% of it sulfate process needing over 4 tons of sulfuric acid per ton of pigment. A Chinese cost shock could bring curtailments, tighter supply and firmer pricing, and with Chemours' TiO2 unit at trough margins, every dollar of price falls straight through. … Show more

Copper prices should run because demand is at an inflection point and near infinite while new mines take a decade to build, letting miners earn more on every unit pulled from the ground. Copper is highly likely to become one of the market's micro bubbles. x.com 

Copper's rally is driven mainly by financial players rather than physical demand, making it unsustainable in the short term. Inventories keep rising against the shortage narrative, commercial hedgers are near multi-year shorts while CTAs hold multi-year highs, and China's credit impulse is deteriorating. The cycle and seasonality point to a peak in late August or early September, and a weekly rising wedge signals exhaustion. The long-term picture stays bullish after a reset into Q4 or Q1 2027. … Show more

Copper and base metals look bullish on currency debasement and years of copper deficits. x.com  x.com 

Copper miners stand to gain as the massive AI infrastructure buildout drives copper demand sharply higher through 2027, continuously pushing prices up; now is an excellent buying opportunity. LME copper topped $14,000/ton and COMEX $6.65/lb on rebounding Chinese demand, tight Middle East sulfur supply and AI data-center power needs. A 350,000-ton global shortfall is projected for 2026, and miners offer 2-3x leverage to copper price moves. x.com 

A copper super-cycle is coming because demand is exploding while supply shrinks. S&P Global says supply will decline 7% between 2025 and 2040 while demand grows 50%, and Bloomberg expects demand to grow 40% by 2050, driven by the energy transition, the AI buildout and robots. No new supply is coming over the next decade. Per the Kobeissi Letter, copper futures have hit a record high, up 22% this year and over 70% since January 2025. x.com  x.com