Willem Middelkoop
Founder of Commodity Discovery Fund, Author of The Big Reset
Record copper import premiums signal imminent supply shortages. @robert_ivanhoe reports that the Yangshan premium broke its record, indicating scarce near-term supply in China. An Ivan Bebek chart using International Copper Study Group data shows preliminary global mine output down 1% year on year in January-July 2026, after eight straight years of growth. x.com x.comÂ
Less copper mine output means higher copper prices and a revaluation of copper projects. Anglo American reported a 5% fall in third-quarter copper production after record snowfall in Chile; the world needs more copper, not less. Bloomberg's outlook projects a deficit starting in 2028 and widening to 20 million tonnes, about 44% of demand, by 2050. x.com x.comÂ
Copper shorts are making a risky bet as Shanghai and London report record-low copper inventories. Guided by the White House, shorts are piling in on the view that inventories will be allowed to run to zero before anyone buys. x.com x.comÂ
Hard assets and commodities such as copper are where capital is rotating in 2026, as money drains from consumer and services sectors. Inflation is back, with CPI at 3.8%, energy costs up 18% and natural gas up 28%, which makes cash and paper assets losers and hard assets the viable havens. Institutions are 97% invested per the NAAIM index, so flows between sectors matter more than new money, and negative real wages are crushing traditional consumer names. x.comÂ
Copper's rally is driven mainly by financial players rather than physical demand, making it unsustainable in the short term. Inventories keep rising against the shortage narrative, commercial hedgers are near multi-year shorts while CTAs hold multi-year highs, and China's credit impulse is deteriorating. The cycle and seasonality point to a peak in late August or early September, and a weekly rising wedge signals exhaustion. The long-term picture stays bullish after a reset into Q4 or Q1 2027. … Show more
Copper's long-forecast supply shortfall is now arriving. After a 2020 surplus that nobody cared about, 2026 brings the first deficit since 2009 with copper at $14,500, and the market is projected to be 13 million tonnes short by 2040. x.comÂ
Copper miners have a long-term supply case because major copper discoveries have dried up. The world will face a very large copper imbalance as the years pass. x.comÂ
Copper will follow the AI trade lower, making it a good catch-up short. x.comÂ
Copper is becoming the oil of the AI era because the energy transition, AI data centers and military rearmament are all hitting a supply curve locked by geology and time. Ore grades have fallen from 0.8% in 2000 to 0.46%, and new mines now take about 18 years to develop. Per S&P Global, mine output peaks in 2029, with a 2.2Mt concentrate deficit by 2032; the IEA sees mines meeting only about 70% of demand by 2035. Per CRU, data center copper demand rises from 260kt in 2025 to over 650kt by 2030. … Show more
Copper's structural deficit does not yet look priced in, with the copper/gold ratio still near multi-decade lows. JPMorgan forecasts a 330kt copper deficit in 2026, AI data centers may need over 1 million tons a year by 2030, EVs use about 4x the copper of gas cars, new mines take 15-20 years to build, and ore grades have declined for decades. x.comÂ
Copper is not a bullish play, as it is arguably used more as a transitional tool over the next two years. That holds even though NVIDIA's CEO said they will need more copper, alongside optics and CPO. x.comÂ
Copper is heading toward a potential supply crunch as tariff fears tighten global supply just as AI data centers, renewables and power grids demand more of it than ever. Prices just hit a record $14,533 per ton. x.comÂ
