Record copper import premiums signal imminent supply shortages. @robert_ivanhoe reports that the Yangshan premium broke its record, indicating scarce near-term supply in China. An Ivan Bebek chart using International Copper Study Group data shows preliminary global mine output down 1% year on year in January-July 2026, after eight straight years of growth. x.com  x.com 

Wall Street has not priced in that the world could be short 10M metric tons of copper by 2040 without many more major discoveries. x.com 

Copper's rally is driven mainly by financial players rather than physical demand, making it unsustainable in the short term. Inventories keep rising against the shortage narrative, commercial hedgers are near multi-year shorts while CTAs hold multi-year highs, and China's credit impulse is deteriorating. The cycle and seasonality point to a peak in late August or early September, and a weekly rising wedge signals exhaustion. The long-term picture stays bullish after a reset into Q4 or Q1 2027. … Show more

Hard assets and commodities such as copper are where capital is rotating in 2026, as money drains from consumer and services sectors. Inflation is back, with CPI at 3.8%, energy costs up 18% and natural gas up 28%, which makes cash and paper assets losers and hard assets the viable havens. Institutions are 97% invested per the NAAIM index, so flows between sectors matter more than new money, and negative real wages are crushing traditional consumer names. x.com 

Copper miners have a long-term supply case because major copper discoveries have dried up. The world will face a very large copper imbalance as the years pass. x.com 

Copper will follow the AI trade lower, making it a good catch-up short. x.com 

Copper's rally is driven by grid buildout and AI-driven power demand pulling physical inventory tighter than the futures curve reflects. The move started well before anyone was pricing a Fed pivot; the rate story is the narrative people reach for after the fact, not the driver. x.com 

Copper's long-forecast supply shortfall is now arriving. After a 2020 surplus that nobody cared about, 2026 brings the first deficit since 2009 with copper at $14,500, and the market is projected to be 13 million tonnes short by 2040. x.com 

Copper and base metals look bullish on currency debasement and years of copper deficits. x.com  x.com 

Copper is becoming the oil of the AI era because the energy transition, AI data centers and military rearmament are all hitting a supply curve locked by geology and time. Ore grades have fallen from 0.8% in 2000 to 0.46%, and new mines now take about 18 years to develop. Per S&P Global, mine output peaks in 2029, with a 2.2Mt concentrate deficit by 2032; the IEA sees mines meeting only about 70% of demand by 2035. Per CRU, data center copper demand rises from 260kt in 2025 to over 650kt by 2030. … Show more