Vlad Bastion
Founder of Investment Bastion, Systematic Stock Ratings & Algorithmic Portfolios
Southern Copper is outperforming copper itself thanks to operating leverage, as AI and grid demand push copper toward a widening deficit. Copper gained about 50% over the past year to a record near $14,545 per tonne in August, supported by demand from AI data centers and power grid expansion, while major producers cut output, pushing the market toward a deficit expected to widen through 2030. Southern Copper has the highest momentum rating among US mega-caps. x.comÂ
Southern Copper sits at the bottom of the global copper cost curve, which has kept it profitable through every downturn. Byproduct sales of molybdenum, zinc and silver from the same ore cut its net cost to 5 cents a pound last quarter. Over 21 years its worst net margin was +12.7%, while Freeport-McMoRan's was -82.7% in 2015; when prices fall, higher-cost mines slip into losses while Southern Copper stays above the line. x.com x.comÂ
Southern Copper is a critical upstream supplier to AI: it doesn't make AI software or chips, but mines the copper the massive physical infrastructure behind AI requires. It fits a relevant theme flagged by a proprietary algorithm. x.comÂ
Southern Copper looks expensive against its sales. At $203.92 and a $172.2 billion market cap, it trades about 98% above the high end of a $80.84-102.89 fair value range based on 5x mid-cycle sales. It also trades at 28x forward earnings, 11x EV/sales and a PEG of 5.41. x.comÂ
Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper own the real AI bottleneck, copper, a link almost no one is pricing yet. AI data centers are wrapped in copper wire, EVs need 2-3x the copper of gas cars, and every grid upgrade needs it; per S&P Global, demand nearly doubles by 2035. Supply can't respond fast: a US mine takes 29 years from discovery to production, and only three major US mines have opened since 2002. Freeport is the liquid bellwether; Southern Copper is the lowest-cost producer. x.com x.com … Show more
Copper is one of the clearest trades over the next three years because supply is worse than most realize while AI accelerates demand. Chile, about a quarter of global production, just hit a nine-year production low, and copper miners have held up far better than silver and gold. Deutsche Bank forecasts copper soaring 50% to $22,050 a ton. x.comÂ
Copper will follow the AI trade lower, making it a good catch-up short. x.comÂ
Copper is becoming the oil of the AI era because the energy transition, AI data centers and military rearmament are all hitting a supply curve locked by geology and time. Ore grades have fallen from 0.8% in 2000 to 0.46%, and new mines now take about 18 years to develop. Per S&P Global, mine output peaks in 2029, with a 2.2Mt concentrate deficit by 2032; the IEA sees mines meeting only about 70% of demand by 2035. Per CRU, data center copper demand rises from 260kt in 2025 to over 650kt by 2030. … Show more
Copper's structural deficit does not yet look priced in, with the copper/gold ratio still near multi-decade lows. JPMorgan forecasts a 330kt copper deficit in 2026, AI data centers may need over 1 million tons a year by 2030, EVs use about 4x the copper of gas cars, new mines take 15-20 years to build, and ore grades have declined for decades. x.comÂ
Copper is a forgotten bottleneck of AI and is breaking out, which sets up copper miners to run. The names include giants Freeport-McMoRan, Southern Copper and Teck; growth producers Hudbay, Ero Copper and Lundin Mining; next-generation developers Ivanhoe Mines and NGEx Minerals; high-beta Taseko Mines; and the Global X Copper Miners ETF. x.comÂ
Copper miners have a long-term supply case because major copper discoveries have dried up. The world will face a very large copper imbalance as the years pass. x.comÂ
