Southern Copper is outperforming copper itself thanks to operating leverage, as AI and grid demand push copper toward a widening deficit. Copper gained about 50% over the past year to a record near $14,545 per tonne in August, supported by demand from AI data centers and power grid expansion, while major producers cut output, pushing the market toward a deficit expected to widen through 2030. Southern Copper has the highest momentum rating among US mega-caps. x.com 

Freeport-McMoRan is an excellent way to capture a structural commodities bull market. Goldman Sachs, in its first Buy rating, calls it the best exposure to a structural copper shortage, plus gold. Per Goldman, electrification lifts copper demand 2.1% a year to 2030 while falling ore grades raise costs. Grasberg's gold by-product and US leaching at about $1 a pound, aiming for 800 million pounds a year by 2030, could lift EBITDA margins above 50% and fund $19 billion-plus of free cash flow. x.com 

Southern Copper looks expensive against its sales. At $203.92 and a $172.2 billion market cap, it trades about 98% above the high end of a $80.84-102.89 fair value range based on 5x mid-cycle sales. It also trades at 28x forward earnings, 11x EV/sales and a PEG of 5.41. x.com 

Freeport-McMoRan can grow copper output at high margins without building new mines, using proprietary leaching and heated solution injection in Arizona. These already add over 200 million pounds a year, with longer-term targets of 400-800 million. Barclays initiated at Overweight with a $77 target and UBS raised its target to $75. AI data centers, grid upgrades and a forecast copper deficit drive demand, while gold by-product credits lower net copper costs. x.com 

Freeport-McMoRan looks expensive against its earnings at $77.97. It trades at 38x trailing and 19x next year's earnings, while copper miners usually get 13x. Applying 13x to next year's $4.14 EPS gives fair value of $47.31 to $60.21, leaving the stock 30% above the high end. The valuation leans on forecasts, with forward EPS 103% above trailing. This is a valuation-levels read only, without fundamental work. x.com 

Southern Copper's chart looks good for a move above $200 in May, with $2.3 million of June $200 calls coming in. x.com 

Copper keeps setting all-time highs, now $6.65 a pound, on rising demand and an increasingly tight supply backdrop. Two of the world's most important copper miners, Freeport-McMoRan and Ivanhoe, have both cut ramp-up expectations for Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula, respectively. x.com 

Copper will follow the AI trade lower, making it a good catch-up short. x.com 

Copper miners look attractive because copper could quickly double and become a true AI supply-chain bottleneck, though the trade is fairly consensus. Per a quoted thread on S&P Global data, tier-1 discoveries fell from 714.8Mt in the 1990s to 8.7Mt over 2020-2025 despite exploration spending above $3 billion a year. A mix of explorers and producers works best: Hudbay and Taseko for US assets, Ero as cheap, Solaris as built for a sale, plus Glencore, Teck, Southern Copper and Freeport. x.com  … Show more

Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper own the real AI bottleneck, copper, a link almost no one is pricing yet. AI data centers are wrapped in copper wire, EVs need 2-3x the copper of gas cars, and every grid upgrade needs it; per S&P Global, demand nearly doubles by 2035. Supply can't respond fast: a US mine takes 29 years from discovery to production, and only three major US mines have opened since 2002. Freeport is the liquid bellwether; Southern Copper is the lowest-cost producer. x.com  x.com  … Show more