Copper keeps setting all-time highs, now $6.65 a pound, on rising demand and an increasingly tight supply backdrop. Two of the world's most important copper miners, Freeport-McMoRan and Ivanhoe, have both cut ramp-up expectations for Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula, respectively. x.com 

Freeport-McMoRan can grow copper output at high margins without building new mines, using proprietary leaching and heated solution injection in Arizona. These already add over 200 million pounds a year, with longer-term targets of 400-800 million. Barclays initiated at Overweight with a $77 target and UBS raised its target to $75. AI data centers, grid upgrades and a forecast copper deficit drive demand, while gold by-product credits lower net copper costs. x.com 

Freeport-McMoRan looks expensive against its earnings at $77.97. It trades at 38x trailing and 19x next year's earnings, while copper miners usually get 13x. Applying 13x to next year's $4.14 EPS gives fair value of $47.31 to $60.21, leaving the stock 30% above the high end. The valuation leans on forecasts, with forward EPS 103% above trailing. This is a valuation-levels read only, without fundamental work. x.com 

Southern Copper sits at the bottom of the global copper cost curve, which has kept it profitable through every downturn. Byproduct sales of molybdenum, zinc and silver from the same ore cut its net cost to 5 cents a pound last quarter. Over 21 years its worst net margin was +12.7%, while Freeport-McMoRan's was -82.7% in 2015; when prices fall, higher-cost mines slip into losses while Southern Copper stays above the line. x.com  x.com 

Copper, aluminum, Freeport-McMoRan and Rio Tinto can climb to their 2008 supercycle highs, 4-5x current levels, as AI data centers and aerospace infrastructure such as SpaceX drive a capex cycle rivaling the 2000s China buildout, a Hugh Hendry call from his George Gammon interview. Per Hendry, aluminum is mispriced: no one can earn a competitive return on a new North American smelter at spot, so prices must multiply to fund the capacity US supply-chain decoupling needs. Accumulate on breakouts. … Show more

Copper miners look attractive because copper could quickly double and become a true AI supply-chain bottleneck, though the trade is fairly consensus. Per a quoted thread on S&P Global data, tier-1 discoveries fell from 714.8Mt in the 1990s to 8.7Mt over 2020-2025 despite exploration spending above $3 billion a year. A mix of explorers and producers works best: Hudbay and Taseko for US assets, Ero as cheap, Solaris as built for a sale, plus Glencore, Teck, Southern Copper and Freeport. x.com  … Show more

Glencore's progress on selling Kazzinc and a DRC stake, alongside monetisation of BG shares, adds to its investment case. Copper output is within range, marketing EBIT tops $5bn, and its ASX listing and signs of life in coal leave the stars lining up. x.com 

Copper miners stand to benefit as US Section 232 copper tariffs, due to be finalized by June 30, weaponize the raw materials AI hardware needs. Goldman Sachs warns new tariffs will likely trigger large-scale hoarding by US buyers, and COMEX copper stocks have already passed a record 650,000 tons. The crunch is spreading to tungsten, tin, tantalum and indium; that cost-push inflation hurts AI hardware margins but is structurally very bullish for copper-rich miners. x.com 

Copper's structural deficit does not yet look priced in, with the copper/gold ratio still near multi-decade lows. JPMorgan forecasts a 330kt copper deficit in 2026, AI data centers may need over 1 million tons a year by 2030, EVs use about 4x the copper of gas cars, new mines take 15-20 years to build, and ore grades have declined for decades. x.com 

Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper own the real AI bottleneck, copper, a link almost no one is pricing yet. AI data centers are wrapped in copper wire, EVs need 2-3x the copper of gas cars, and every grid upgrade needs it; per S&P Global, demand nearly doubles by 2035. Supply can't respond fast: a US mine takes 29 years from discovery to production, and only three major US mines have opened since 2002. Freeport is the liquid bellwether; Southern Copper is the lowest-cost producer. x.com  x.com  … Show more