Copper keeps setting all-time highs, now $6.65 a pound, on rising demand and an increasingly tight supply backdrop. Two of the world's most important copper miners, Freeport-McMoRan and Ivanhoe, have both cut ramp-up expectations for Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula, respectively. x.com 

Freeport-McMoRan is an excellent way to capture a structural commodities bull market. Goldman Sachs, in its first Buy rating, calls it the best exposure to a structural copper shortage, plus gold. Per Goldman, electrification lifts copper demand 2.1% a year to 2030 while falling ore grades raise costs. Grasberg's gold by-product and US leaching at about $1 a pound, aiming for 800 million pounds a year by 2030, could lift EBITDA margins above 50% and fund $19 billion-plus of free cash flow. x.com 

Freeport-McMoRan can grow copper output at high margins without building new mines, using proprietary leaching and heated solution injection in Arizona. These already add over 200 million pounds a year, with longer-term targets of 400-800 million. Barclays initiated at Overweight with a $77 target and UBS raised its target to $75. AI data centers, grid upgrades and a forecast copper deficit drive demand, while gold by-product credits lower net copper costs. x.com 

Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper own the real AI bottleneck, copper, a link almost no one is pricing yet. AI data centers are wrapped in copper wire, EVs need 2-3x the copper of gas cars, and every grid upgrade needs it; per S&P Global, demand nearly doubles by 2035. Supply can't respond fast: a US mine takes 29 years from discovery to production, and only three major US mines have opened since 2002. Freeport is the liquid bellwether; Southern Copper is the lowest-cost producer. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Copper is one of the clearest trades over the next three years because supply is worse than most realize while AI accelerates demand. Chile, about a quarter of global production, just hit a nine-year production low, and copper miners have held up far better than silver and gold. Deutsche Bank forecasts copper soaring 50% to $22,050 a ton. x.com 

Hudbay Minerals may be one of the most overlooked copper names. It posts record EBITDA and cash flow on strong copper and gold production, and benefits from demand tied to AI, data centers, EVs and grid infrastructure. The stock is setting up to break out of a 20-year base. x.com  x.com 

Coal stocks are setting up for several quarters of upside as a new cycle gets under way. After a deep pullback the group is due at least a 40-week cycle low and is within the timing of an 18-month low; April 2025 was likely the 4-year low. CONSOL, Whitehaven and Warrior Met have broken downtrends, and Peabody and others should follow; confirmation needs a downtrend break and a higher weekly low. The aftermath of the half-year Hormuz closure should also benefit thermal coal. x.com 

Southern Copper sits at the bottom of the global copper cost curve, which has kept it profitable through every downturn. Byproduct sales of molybdenum, zinc and silver from the same ore cut its net cost to 5 cents a pound last quarter. Over 21 years its worst net margin was +12.7%, while Freeport-McMoRan's was -82.7% in 2015; when prices fall, higher-cost mines slip into losses while Southern Copper stays above the line. x.com  x.com 

Copper's long-forecast supply shortfall is now arriving. After a 2020 surplus that nobody cared about, 2026 brings the first deficit since 2009 with copper at $14,500, and the market is projected to be 13 million tonnes short by 2040. x.com 

Copper hit its highest recorded price in August, and supply cannot answer quickly because a new mine takes twelve to fifteen years, if drilling, permits and governments cooperate. The investment case is the gap between demand rising from about 28M tonnes today to 42M by 2040 and supply stalling around 2030. Two of the four demand engines, the AI build-out and electrification, also drive the tech trade, so bulls on data centres cannot be indifferent to the metal that wires them. x.com  x.com