Copper will follow the AI trade lower, making it a good catch-up short. x.com 

Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper own the real AI bottleneck, copper, a link almost no one is pricing yet. AI data centers are wrapped in copper wire, EVs need 2-3x the copper of gas cars, and every grid upgrade needs it; per S&P Global, demand nearly doubles by 2035. Supply can't respond fast: a US mine takes 29 years from discovery to production, and only three major US mines have opened since 2002. Freeport is the liquid bellwether; Southern Copper is the lowest-cost producer. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Southern Copper looks expensive against its sales. At $203.92 and a $172.2 billion market cap, it trades about 98% above the high end of a $80.84-102.89 fair value range based on 5x mid-cycle sales. It also trades at 28x forward earnings, 11x EV/sales and a PEG of 5.41. x.com 

Copper is a forgotten bottleneck of AI and is breaking out, which sets up copper miners to run. The names include giants Freeport-McMoRan, Southern Copper and Teck; growth producers Hudbay, Ero Copper and Lundin Mining; next-generation developers Ivanhoe Mines and NGEx Minerals; high-beta Taseko Mines; and the Global X Copper Miners ETF. x.com 

Copper miners have a long-term supply case because major copper discoveries have dried up. The world will face a very large copper imbalance as the years pass. x.com 

Teck Resources looks expensive against its earnings, trading at 20x when copper miners usually get about 13x. At 13x next year's estimated $3.61 per share, give or take 12%, fair value is $41.26 to $52.52, so the stock trades about 37% above fair. This is a valuation-levels call only, based on reported earnings and revenue estimates rather than fundamental work. x.com 

Copper is one of the clearest trades over the next three years because supply is worse than most realize while AI accelerates demand. Chile, about a quarter of global production, just hit a nine-year production low, and copper miners have held up far better than silver and gold. Deutsche Bank forecasts copper soaring 50% to $22,050 a ton. x.com 

Freeport-McMoRan is an excellent way to capture a structural commodities bull market. Goldman Sachs, in its first Buy rating, calls it the best exposure to a structural copper shortage, plus gold. Per Goldman, electrification lifts copper demand 2.1% a year to 2030 while falling ore grades raise costs. Grasberg's gold by-product and US leaching at about $1 a pound, aiming for 800 million pounds a year by 2030, could lift EBITDA margins above 50% and fund $19 billion-plus of free cash flow. x.com 

Record copper import premiums signal imminent supply shortages. @robert_ivanhoe reports that the Yangshan premium broke its record, indicating scarce near-term supply in China. An Ivan Bebek chart using International Copper Study Group data shows preliminary global mine output down 1% year on year in January-July 2026, after eight straight years of growth. x.com  x.com 

Copper's structural deficit does not yet look priced in, with the copper/gold ratio still near multi-decade lows. JPMorgan forecasts a 330kt copper deficit in 2026, AI data centers may need over 1 million tons a year by 2030, EVs use about 4x the copper of gas cars, new mines take 15-20 years to build, and ore grades have declined for decades. x.com