Mosaic is a must-own because, per management, corn above $5 changes farmer economics. @PeterLBrandt reports an unusually heavy long position in grains, including corn, soybeans, meal and Kansas City wheat. x.com 

Mosaic is a catch-up play to the rest of fertilizers, since energy, fertilizers, grains and chemicals should all skyrocket while the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. April 2025 was likely a 4-5 year cycle low, and the stock has made a weekly breakout and retest, with multi-x upside possible over the next few years. More basing in mid-2026, possibly undercutting $20, could still come; daily strength and a close above the 50-day average would confirm. x.com 

CF Industries, Nutrien, Mosaic and ICL Group are poor long-term holdings despite surging 10-30% on the Hormuz-driven urea spike. Fertilizer shares Maersk's flaws of cyclicality, weak capital allocation and no economic moat, and amplifies them. Demand follows farmer budgets: when crop prices are high farmers splurge on inputs, and when crops fall they cut back. Urea's 80% jump to $730 a ton reflects a supply shock as Gulf exports are cut off, not a durable advantage. x.com 

Agricultural commodity prices should rise because a lack of fertilizer means lower crop yields. Cycles are up, wheat is breaking out on the weekly chart and agris look excellent across the board. Adecoagro could make a multi-quarter, multi-fold move once it breaks out of a 15.5-year base; it closed above its 200-day average after a likely five-year cycle low in December 2025. Above heavy supply near $12 it likely returns to its $16 high, while losing $8.88 could mean a retest of the lows. x.com 

Nutrien is a great way to play supply disruptions in urea, ammonia, nitrogen and other fertilizer components. Demand is not going away, but constrained supply is pushing prices higher, which is good for profits. x.com 

Mosaic is being crushed by the very fertilizer crisis that lifts fertilizer prices, because the Strait of Hormuz blockade is blowing up its input costs. Phosphate fertilizers need lots of sulfuric acid, and 44% of the world's seaborne sulfur exports pass through Hormuz. With the strait shut, sulfur prices have spiked even harder than fertilizer prices, presumably worldwide. Bank analysts have lowered Mosaic's 2026 EBITDA estimates, and the stock fell 20% in a week to near six-year lows. x.com  … Show more

Food and fertilizer producers such as Darling Ingredients, Nutrien, Mosaic and CF Industries should benefit as the oil supply shock bottlenecks supply chains and cuts global production of essential materials. Lower production means a supply squeeze, and with valuations very low, that sets up a double repricing. Mosaic and CF have not run yet, and the narrative should continue whether the war stops or not. x.com 

CF Industries should surge as the Middle East crisis cuts fertilizer supply just as planting demand peaks. Roughly a third of the world's fertilizer moves through the Strait of Hormuz, winter planting is starting, and farmers cannot delay, so they must pay whatever the price is. Surging gas prices also raise production costs. The stock pulled back as the market priced in the strait reopening, which has not happened, and could reach $150 short term. Oil is the obvious, mostly priced trade. x.com  … Show more

Wheat is breaking out on the weekly chart, with cycles up and fundamentals supportive, since exploding fertilizer prices mean lower crop yields and higher agricultural prices. A major cycle low likely formed in October 2025, and a new up wave tracking the 2022 pattern is expected to last into 2027; war also tends to lift inflation and food prices. x.com 

Sulfur and nitrogen prices should keep climbing, with one in four US farmers facing a fertilizer shortage this season. Per a post the author replies to, Ecovyst's earnings should soar as the only US-listed pure play on sulfuric acid, and LSB Industries is also a reasonable choice; both are good picks. x.com