Mosaic is a hedge against widespread famine and a massive fertilizer shortage. x.com 

Mosaic is a catch-up play to the rest of fertilizers, since energy, fertilizers, grains and chemicals should all skyrocket while the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. April 2025 was likely a 4-5 year cycle low, and the stock has made a weekly breakout and retest, with multi-x upside possible over the next few years. More basing in mid-2026, possibly undercutting $20, could still come; daily strength and a close above the 50-day average would confirm. x.com 

Mosaic is being crushed by the very fertilizer crisis that lifts fertilizer prices, because the Strait of Hormuz blockade is blowing up its input costs. Phosphate fertilizers need lots of sulfuric acid, and 44% of the world's seaborne sulfur exports pass through Hormuz. With the strait shut, sulfur prices have spiked even harder than fertilizer prices, presumably worldwide. Bank analysts have lowered Mosaic's 2026 EBITDA estimates, and the stock fell 20% in a week to near six-year lows. x.com  … Show more

Farmer Mac's federal charter gives it a moat and low-cost funding as a secondary market for US agriculture and rural infrastructure, fertile ground for long-term compounding. It trades at 11-12x earnings despite double-digit net income growth, yields 3% after 14 straight years of dividend increases, and is expanding into higher-margin rural broadband, renewable energy and power utility financing. Food production and rural energy need capital regardless of the economic cycle. x.com 

Agricultural commodity prices should rise because a lack of fertilizer means lower crop yields. Cycles are up, wheat is breaking out on the weekly chart and agris look excellent across the board. Adecoagro could make a multi-quarter, multi-fold move once it breaks out of a 15.5-year base; it closed above its 200-day average after a likely five-year cycle low in December 2025. Above heavy supply near $12 it likely returns to its $16 high, while losing $8.88 could mean a retest of the lows. x.com 

CF Industries, Nutrien, Mosaic and ICL Group are poor long-term holdings despite surging 10-30% on the Hormuz-driven urea spike. Fertilizer shares Maersk's flaws of cyclicality, weak capital allocation and no economic moat, and amplifies them. Demand follows farmer budgets: when crop prices are high farmers splurge on inputs, and when crops fall they cut back. Urea's 80% jump to $730 a ton reflects a supply shock as Gulf exports are cut off, not a durable advantage. x.com