PelicanTrader
Portfolio Manager at Equity Empire, Former Hedge Fund Manager
Farmer Mac's federal charter gives it a moat and low-cost funding as a secondary market for US agriculture and rural infrastructure, fertile ground for long-term compounding. It trades at 11-12x earnings despite double-digit net income growth, yields 3% after 14 straight years of dividend increases, and is expanding into higher-margin rural broadband, renewable energy and power utility financing. Food production and rural energy need capital regardless of the economic cycle. x.comÂ
Farmland REITs Farmland Partners and Gladstone Land benefit from scarcity, since productive land is finite while food demand is not. Over long periods, scarcity tends to win. x.comÂ
Waste Connections earns local-monopoly economics by dominating secondary and rural markets rather than big cities. Route density, exclusive franchise agreements, strategically located disposal capacity and a BBB+ balance sheet underpin the model. It trades at 28.7x earnings versus 30.2x historically, about a 5% discount, with eight straight years of dividend growth and an 11.4% 10-year EPS CAGR. The 12-month total return estimate is about 25%. x.comÂ
CF Industries, Nutrien, Mosaic and ICL Group are poor long-term holdings despite surging 10-30% on the Hormuz-driven urea spike. Fertilizer shares Maersk's flaws of cyclicality, weak capital allocation and no economic moat, and amplifies them. Demand follows farmer budgets: when crop prices are high farmers splurge on inputs, and when crops fall they cut back. Urea's 80% jump to $730 a ton reflects a supply shock as Gulf exports are cut off, not a durable advantage. x.comÂ
CF Industries is the top stock in agriculture, a sector drawing key inflows while tech struggles. It broke out on volume about 80% above average, and the pattern targets $160 or more. x.comÂ
Mosaic is a must-own because, per management, corn above $5 changes farmer economics. @PeterLBrandt reports an unusually heavy long position in grains, including corn, soybeans, meal and Kansas City wheat. x.comÂ
