Farmer Mac's federal charter gives it a moat and low-cost funding as a secondary market for US agriculture and rural infrastructure, fertile ground for long-term compounding. It trades at 11-12x earnings despite double-digit net income growth, yields 3% after 14 straight years of dividend increases, and is expanding into higher-margin rural broadband, renewable energy and power utility financing. Food production and rural energy need capital regardless of the economic cycle. x.com 

Texas Pacific Land is a high-quality business worth accumulating for the long term as its land gains a higher-value use in data centers and power generation. Its unannounced data-center project, Project North on Buck Nail Ranch, uncovered through scuttlebutt research, could send the stock back toward its highs near $530 once announced. Land is a perpetual asset that grows scarcer and can serve progressively higher-value functions, per Murray Stahl, who bought shares near $330 in January. x.com 

LandBridge is one of the most overlooked AI infrastructure plays, since AI data centers need land, power and fiber and it owns over 270,000 acres in the Permian. The land earns recurring lease revenue at 99% gross margins, which could make it a quiet compounder like Texas Pacific Land; the stock is coiling in a tight 20-month base. Converting from a Delaware LLC to a Texas corporation could ease index inclusion and broaden ownership, a positive but not a reason to buy alone. x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Food inflation is about to skyrocket within months, lifting agricultural commodities. Per @kannbwx, poor crop health and a record-low planted area mean the US will produce its smallest wheat crop since 1972. The economy offsets excess central bank balance sheets through energy, food and shelter inflation, and a Strait of Hormuz disruption to 20% of oil supply implies a comparable GDP hit, with food inflation adding more. x.com 

Agricultural commodity prices should rise because a lack of fertilizer means lower crop yields. Cycles are up, wheat is breaking out on the weekly chart and agris look excellent across the board. Adecoagro could make a multi-quarter, multi-fold move once it breaks out of a 15.5-year base; it closed above its 200-day average after a likely five-year cycle low in December 2025. Above heavy supply near $12 it likely returns to its $16 high, while losing $8.88 could mean a retest of the lows. x.com 

CF Industries should surge as the Middle East crisis cuts fertilizer supply just as planting demand peaks. Roughly a third of the world's fertilizer moves through the Strait of Hormuz, winter planting is starting, and farmers cannot delay, so they must pay whatever the price is. Surging gas prices also raise production costs. The stock pulled back as the market priced in the strait reopening, which has not happened, and could reach $150 short term. Oil is the obvious, mostly priced trade. x.com  … Show more

CF Industries, Nutrien, Mosaic and ICL Group are poor long-term holdings despite surging 10-30% on the Hormuz-driven urea spike. Fertilizer shares Maersk's flaws of cyclicality, weak capital allocation and no economic moat, and amplifies them. Demand follows farmer budgets: when crop prices are high farmers splurge on inputs, and when crops fall they cut back. Urea's 80% jump to $730 a ton reflects a supply shock as Gulf exports are cut off, not a durable advantage. x.com 

North American nitrogen producers win big from the Hormuz blockade, running on $3 Henry Hub gas while European and Asian rivals pay $50-plus. The blockade removes about 25% of seaborne urea at peak spring planting, and farmer demand is inelastic. CF Industries earns outsized margins as urea nears $800 a ton. CVR Partners pays out nearly all cash flow as UAN prices jump 45%. Nutrien gains pricing power through 2,000-plus retail sites. Low April applications should keep prices high into 2027. … Show more

Food and fertilizer producers such as Darling Ingredients, Nutrien, Mosaic and CF Industries should benefit as the oil supply shock bottlenecks supply chains and cuts global production of essential materials. Lower production means a supply squeeze, and with valuations very low, that sets up a double repricing. Mosaic and CF have not run yet, and the narrative should continue whether the war stops or not. x.com 

Archer-Daniels-Midland has a catalyst in the likely lifting of the summer E15 restriction, which would expand its domestic demand floor as a major corn-ethanol producer. Pain at the pump from the Iran energy shock makes the lift increasingly likely, and Trump has promised to lift the June-September ban, reiterating it in Iowa in January; it is an easy win via the EPA. Peer Bunge is breaking all-time highs. A DOJ investigation into inflated 2022 revenue explains the overhang on the shares. x.com  … Show more