Daniel Romero
Technology Equity Analyst, Semiconductors/Data Centers/Physical AI
Hyliion's data-center story is weakening because its key VFG Holdings partnership seems to have vanished. VFG, signatory of a nonbinding LOI for up to 50 MW of KARNO units, went unnamed on the Q2 call, and the June 30 10-Q never mentions VFG or the LOIs. The first multi-megawatt data-center delivery is now slated for 2028, and commercialization of the 200 kW KARNO Power Module slipped from end-2026 to 2027. The $41.7 million US Navy contract is the one bright spot. x.com
Hyliion is being bid up as the next Bloom Energy-style trade on a weak validator. Its biggest one, the VFG Holdings deal for up to 250 KARNO Cores (50 MW) over five years, is only a non-binding LOI, and per LinkedIn VFG has four employees, no job posts, was founded in 2025, and its CEO studied music with no apparent data-center experience. Hyliion's history has been disastrous for investors, it is unproven at scale, and it already failed to scale its previous big bet, EV motors. x.com
Hyliion's KARNO generator has value, but not for data centers. Data centers do not want the maintenance or the logistics of relying on trucks to bring fuel, even if, as a reply argues, the unit can be moved on a flatbed and run on many fuel types. x.com
2G Energy's growing orders and long service tail support its unusually cheap AI data-center power valuation. Nine-month 2026 orders exceed €880m, more than twice 2025 revenue; backlog runs into 2028 and service contracts last 15-20 years. Management first guided to €750-850m of revenue in 2028 and says units already sold could support over $100m in annual service revenue once running from mid-2027. At about 17x expected 2027 earnings, it looks cheapest in this space and is preferred to INNIO. … Show more
Hyliion is not that speculative given how low its market cap remains. x.com
Hyliion has pivoted many times, and its latest move is just another attempt to save the business, so investors should be careful. x.com
FuelCell Energy could ride AI data-center power demand with high-temperature fuel cells for clean baseload, scaling 12.5MW FuelCell Blocks for hyperscalers. At about a $650 million market cap, it has $170 million of TTM revenue, Q1 up 61%, a $1.17 billion backlog, $312 million of cash and output ramping to 350MW. Risks are negative gross margins, cash burn, dilution and unproven execution; @SueWallSt notes its 1.5GW of data center deals are proposals and backlog shrank. High risk, high reward. … Show more
Hyliion's Q2 makes KARNO more likely to become a real commercial platform, even as full commercialization slips to 2027. Revenue was $4.9M versus about $2.4M expected, FY26 guidance rose to about $15M, and the 2026 cash burn outlook fell to $30-35M from about $50M, meaningfully reducing dilution risk. A $41.7M Navy contract, multi-MW validation and hyperscaler talks on tens to hundreds of MW add support. Execution risk remains until binding datacenter orders arrive. x.com x.com
FuelCell Energy being the named fuel-cell partner for the Newport Township data-center project is huge, provided the company actually builds the capacity. Per @ThematicTrader, the project spans 1,386 acres of former mining land, and while the Fit Energy contract maxes out at 380 MW, the site could support about 1.2 GW of IT load. Management still makes it a low-quality company, though good execution could change that. x.com x.com
Wolfspeed has yet to show AI data centers can fix its economics. It has gone four quarters without sizing AI data-center revenue, reporting only decelerating sequential growth of roughly 50%, 30% and 20%, and calls the opportunity 'moderate'. Gross margin is -16.2%, with 1.7x debt to equity after a Chapter 11 that closed in September. Yet Lite-On's 800 VDC power racks, due for mass production in November, run on Wolfspeed's 200mm SiC, so a rerate could land on it first. x.com x.com
Hyliion's KARNO generator can win AI data center and defense power demand, while net cash gives the stock a margin of safety. Passing UL certification, the biggest go-to-market hurdle, lets Hyliion start deliveries to early customers. KARNO natively outputs 800V DC, matching AI compute racks and avoiding AC/DC conversion losses; VFG Holdings signed a multi-megawatt data center deal. Navy contracts drove Q1 growth, with $40-50M more military awards expected. Hyliion is debt-free with $139M cash. … Show more
GE Vernova's AI-driven power demand is compounding faster than its Wind segment can drag on results. Data center orders already exceed $5B, more than double 2025's full-year total, even as headline EPS came in below estimates. The market is fixating on the wrong line. x.com
