Schulz Duggan
AI Supply-Chain Research, Optics/Memory/Macro, Original Asian/US Filings & Pricing
Wolfspeed has yet to show AI data centers can fix its economics. It has gone four quarters without sizing AI data-center revenue, reporting only decelerating sequential growth of roughly 50%, 30% and 20%, and calls the opportunity 'moderate'. Gross margin is -16.2%, with 1.7x debt to equity after a Chapter 11 that closed in September. Yet Lite-On's 800 VDC power racks, due for mass production in November, run on Wolfspeed's 200mm SiC, so a rerate could land on it first. x.com x.com
Wolfspeed's recovery depends on demand that has not arrived, unlike polysilicon makers whose price war is ending as China removes capacity. Daqo described a supply exit led by China's market regulator, new energy rules and a no-below-cost pledge, cutting effective capacity from about 3M to under 2M tonnes. Wolfspeed's CFO puts break-even at $800M of annual revenue versus a $600M run rate, yet guided flat, with substrate sales falling another year. Will China's anti-involution push reach SiC? x.com
Pure or heavy silicon carbide players such as STMicroelectronics, onsemi and Wolfspeed look higher-risk and currently unappealing in the AI data-center shift to 800V DC power and solid-state transformers. The better risk/reward in that transition sits with power-electronics names positioned for it, such as Enphase and SolarEdge, whose bidirectional power-conversion know-how suits transformers that step 13 kV utility power down to 800V DC and must handle sudden GPU load swings. x.com
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor is a promising business at the wrong price: its rerating on Nvidia AI-power hype rests on a narrative management has already walked down. The stock is up about 128% in a year to $44.45, near its 52-week high, as retail frames it as the cheapest catch-up in the 48V-to-12V power shift, citing alleged Nvidia GB300 DrMOS allocation. Yet the 800V supply chain is hard to win, with its bottleneck in silicon carbide and gallium nitride held by a few incumbents. x.com x.com … Show more
BorgWarner's 800V inverter platform could bring substantial silicon-carbide revenue to Wolfspeed. At an assumed $400 per EV for a traction inverter, within a $300-$600 range, 100,000-400,000 vehicles would imply $40 million-$160 million for Wolfspeed, versus $650 million in revenue now. A prior BorgWarner program covered 400,000 vehicles; volume could be higher as EVs made up 25% of new vehicle sales in 2025 and should keep gaining share. x.com
Power Integrations should be very successful over the next one to five years because it makes the only GaN switches needed for NVIDIA's new rack architecture. x.com x.com
Alphabet and Broadcom should benefit because bipolar 400V power, not 800V HVDC, is the faster on-ramp for AI data centers, especially custom ASIC clusters. Nvidia's Rubin still favors 50V DC at the tray and solid-state transformers lack medium-voltage support, so 800V today means inefficient step-down, step-up, step-down conversions; the direct path is 2+ years away. Hyperscalers already have mature ±400V designs via OCP, amplifying Google's TPU efficiency edge and Broadcom's ASIC momentum. … Show more
Wolfspeed could be the best-performing stock by this time next year despite a weak quarter, because 800V DC power will need lots of new silicon-carbide hardware. Schulz Research notes substrate revenue fell 44.8% year over year to $43.3 million and GAAP gross margin was minus 25%. 800V DC was pushed out but will still come, requiring solid-state transformers and inverters that use SiC heavily. The market got carried away; the Rubin Ultra ramp is when it matters, and then it will matter big. … Show more
The companies on Nvidia's partner list for its next-generation 800V power architecture are effectively the power semis Nvidia is telling investors to buy: Navitas, MediaTek, STMicroelectronics, Flex, Power Integrations, Delta Electronics, Alpha & Omega, onsemi, Infineon, Vertiv, Texas Instruments, Monolithic Power, GE Vernova, Analog Devices, ABB, BizLink, Eaton, LITE-ON, Schneider Electric and Siemens. Navitas and MediaTek lead the group's gains at more than 200% each. x.com
Navitas is an option on Nvidia's 800V DC data-center architecture, where GaN handles the step-down from 800 volts to processor level inside the rack. The design halves power conversion stages so racks can reach the up to 8 megawatts Rubin Ultra needs, with full deployment alongside Kyber in 2027. Navitas, on Nvidia's partner list, is the only US-listed pure-play GaN company. Revenue is minimal until the Kyber ramp, and Nvidia's 29-company partner list means hard pricing pressure. x.com
Wolfspeed is a high-risk, asymmetric post-bankruptcy turnaround with the only 200mm silicon carbide fab at scale in the US, and its real market is solid-state transformers for hyperscaler power. It emerged with 45M shares, Renesas as anchor and CFIUS clearance. Q3 revenue missed at $150M and gross margins stay negative, but AI data-center revenue rose 50%, 43% of its first-lien debt is retired, capex fell 90% and opex was cut $200M. If output fills capacity, high short interest adds upside. … Show more
Navitas' AI power case got another green light: Nvidia's Jensen Huang says the 800 VDC power rack roadmap remains intact, with shipments in the second half of 2026. Navitas' GaN and SiC chips sit directly in the rack's power-conversion path, and its 5th-generation GeneSiC technology supports a pivot from low-margin consumer electronics toward AI data centers, grid and industrial customers. QuantumScape's solid-state batteries are positioned for high-density backup units in these racks. x.com
