Prepared Remarks
Equity Investor, Macro Commentary
A stronger SpaceX could lift the wider space-stock basket, including AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Redwire, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace and Voyager Technologies. Per DeItaone, JPMorgan raised its SpaceX price target from $240 to $500 while maintaining Overweight. The seven space stocks rose alongside SpaceX after hours. Their initial post-IPO selloff was followed by macro-driven weakness, not further weakness caused by SpaceX. x.com x.com x.com
SpaceX faces near-term selling risk from an insider-share unlock despite a remarkably strong quarter. Tomorrow, 28% of its insider lockup pool, nearly 10% of all shares, becomes eligible for sale. Revenue reached $14.6 billion, up 161%, with $4.4 billion in net profit; $7.6 billion in AI revenue now exceeds Starlink and other connectivity revenue combined. x.com
Virgin Galactic's squeeze is playing with fire that could turn into a blaze. Per Stocktwits, the stock is up 120% this week, including 22% pre-market, on speculation that people will think they're investing in SpaceX. x.com
Small space stocks like AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab remain shorts: they have gone into a delirious pump since 2025 in sympathy with SpaceX anticipation, and retail has not yet taken enough pain. The time to cover is once they get eviscerated. x.com
SpaceX shares are being held up by market makers, not real institutional buying, setting retail up to be the last buyers. The support draws retail FOMO and short sellers whose covering adds another leg up, while pre-IPO institutions slowly sell high and insider lock-ups may unlock early. With a float of only 3-5% of market value, SpotGamma calls it one of the most gamma-sensitive markets in a decade; if call buying pauses, dealers unwind and the stock could fall as fast as it rose. x.com x.com
Virgin Galactic's run-up is a pump, not genuine demand. The claim that retail is buying because it confuses the ticker with SpaceX's SPCX is a narrative and an excuse to pump the stock. x.com
Other space stocks look less attractive as liquidity concentrates in SpaceX. StonkChris expects most to face a tougher long-term outlook, though some may still win; the visible flow of liquidity into one name supports that concern. x.com
SpaceX's valuation and upcoming share unlocks warrant caution, even after the stock rallied into October. About a trillion dollars of shares is unlocking, and VC funds and endowments mostly plan to recycle proceeds into venture or other equities now that SpaceX is public. Each unlock passing without much damage may breed complacency, which is when the biggest surprises hit; a rally through December would be even more surprising. The company itself is appealing. x.com x.com x.com
Virgin Galactic is vaporware that has burned retail investors, while SpaceX is a much better space play. Investors selling Virgin Galactic are not mistaking it for SpaceX; they are recognizing that difference. x.com
SpaceX remains well above the range for building a serious long-term position, even though it will eventually be a stock long-term investors wish they had owned earlier. Young IPOs need time for price discovery, and the price paid still matters despite strong fundamentals: revenue up 92%, Starlink subscribers up 101%, AI revenue up 248%, adjusted EBITDA up 191% and about $100B of cash and securities. x.com