SpaceX's large share unlock magnified the selling-pressure risk. The biggest unlock amounted to 30% of its float. x.com 

SpaceX faces near-term selling risk from an insider-share unlock despite a remarkably strong quarter. Tomorrow, 28% of its insider lockup pool, nearly 10% of all shares, becomes eligible for sale. Revenue reached $14.6 billion, up 161%, with $4.4 billion in net profit; $7.6 billion in AI revenue now exceeds Starlink and other connectivity revenue combined. x.com 

SpaceX shares look tempting as the lockup partially ends, with Finviz showing almost a 30% short float. There is no sign of a rush to sell at these prices: many chased the stock at $200, and very few want it in the low $100s. x.com 

SpaceX's 25% two-day rally to $133 is a short-covering trap, not the end of the danger. With 34% of the float shorted before 911.5 million shares unlocked, covering drove the price up and retail followed, but supply has not changed: the shares remain unlocked, insiders can still sell and more unlocks are coming. The expected path is a retest of resistance, a flush below $100 and final capitulation into $77-85, the area to start buying. x.com 

SpaceX shares look headed lower, possibly below $75, because the business is not profitable at the moment. The stock has hit a new all-time low of $110, and a fall toward $50 cannot be ruled out, though it may take time. x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX shorts are crowded into a stock that big institutions are set to buy. Real-time short interest is 289.1M shares, or 45% of the 638.9M share float, up from 35%. Fidelity, Baron, Vanguard, Invesco, BlackRock and Capital Group know the August 10 lockup expiry is coming and want to gross up their positions; Fidelity will not stay at 1.66%. The first several quarters of a newly listed company are also usually heavily sandbagged. x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's post-earnings surge sets the stage for insiders to sell at better prices once the lockup expires, pointing to a major pullback below $100 around the August 6 share unlock. Insiders who bought at the IPO can already sell, and the stock was already falling after hours. x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's heavy spending and risk of further borrowing make its sharp stock rally hard to square with weakening debt and a huge lock-up expiration ahead. Bloomberg reports its bonds weakened and credit spreads widened despite earnings above estimates. Talk of a potential Tesla acquisition is also in the air. x.com 

SpaceX's unlock selling should clear by Monday, perhaps tomorrow, allowing a rally. If 200M of nearly 2B unlocked shares sell, 100M daily volume versus a 70M baseline takes seven to eight days to absorb them; $150 cannot break until then. Turnover since the 1.3B unlock should hit 700M tomorrow. Insanely bullish earnings and a super-low-risk bet on massive Q4 cash flows and the exceptional 2027 outlook make SpaceX the #1 rally pick once market tantrums end. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's valuation and upcoming share unlocks warrant caution, even after the stock rallied into October. About a trillion dollars of shares is unlocking, and VC funds and endowments mostly plan to recycle proceeds into venture or other equities now that SpaceX is public. Each unlock passing without much damage may breed complacency, which is when the biggest surprises hit; a rally through December would be even more surprising. The company itself is appealing. x.com  x.com  x.com