Moody
Equity Investor, Semiconductor Research
Tesla looks like a potential loser as an unprecedented IPO pipeline concentrates capital in a few narratives. SpaceX ($75B), Anthropic (over $60B) and OpenAI ($60B) could absorb more capital than anything seen before, and public markets may struggle to support four massively capitalized, still cash-flow-light growth stories at once. Elon Musk may also not want the highest possible Tesla valuation if SpaceX is meant to have strategic flexibility around it. x.com
Tesla could suffer as SpaceX and OpenAI race to raise capital in a risk-on market, pulling money out of other sectors. Capital is not unlimited, and the huge sums flowing into AI infrastructure are already draining other parts of the market and driving some valuations to absurdly low levels. Even hyperscalers now invest more than they earn and tap capital markets, and venture money is flowing overwhelmingly into AI. The money for these raises has to come from somewhere. x.com
SpaceX needs new company equity because the math for its 20 GW plans does not work otherwise. A possible Tesla merger would take too long for its KPIs, even as SpaceX is beating CoreWeave and Cerebras. A huge primary offering by SpaceX, Meta or Alphabet ahead of Anthropic's IPO is considered nearly certain, though the issuer is uncertain. x.com x.com x.com
SpaceX's shrinking cash balance points to another capital raise in Q4 2026 at this rate. Cash and equivalents fell from about $100B to $51.3B quarter on quarter, 43.76% below Wall Street's $91.2B estimate. That weakens the case for SpaceX buying Tesla, an auto maker trading at 235x 2026 earnings. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Elon Musk's projected SpaceX revenue could make SpaceX and Tesla holders insanely rich. Musk predicts more than $2 trillion in SpaceX revenue by 2033; that could imply a combined value of $38 trillion for the two companies. x.com
Tesla's aerial flips and wall-driving have little use for ordinary customers, making earnings from the demonstration hard to see and pointing to a lower share price. If the widely expected SpaceX merger is all-stock, a 10% lower Tesla price at signing would give Musk about 0.5 percentage points more of the combined company, at other Tesla shareholders' expense; he owns roughly 40% of SpaceX but 20% of Tesla. x.com x.com
Tesla's $1.5T Elon premium looks unjustified while Musk seems to favor SpaceX for the AI compute buildout. Tesla shareholders missed almost the entire AI boom; owning xAI and building that infrastructure might have doubled Tesla's stock. Q3 adjusted EPS was $0.48, down 4% year over year; if Tesla were a non-Musk company, four such quarters at 10x earnings would mean $19.20 a share versus $386. Long-term company prospects remain attractive, but the stock is still not worth buying back. x.com … Show more
A SpaceX acquisition of Tesla now seems very likely, at over $500 per share within the next 12 months. Investors are also bullish on robots and robotaxis, so Tesla's fundamentals and valuation do not seem to matter now and have not for some time. x.com
SpaceX's AI business and profitable growth challenge calls for its stock to go much lower. Q3 revenue reached $14.6B, up 161%, with $4.4B profit and $7.6B from AI. A Tesla merger is being discussed. x.com
Tesla's latest reveal has no financial viability for shareholders yet because anything like it may not reach roads before 2035. Like Optimus in 2021, it is cool but not viable yet. SpaceX shareholders should get Tesla at a bargain after Tesla takes a serious beating: Musk owns 49% of SpaceX and already controls its vote, so a depressed acquisition price would give them a better deal while consolidating his control. The merger looks like a matter of when, not if; its price is the question. x.com … Show more
Full integration with SpaceX could lift Tesla's value by removing related-party friction and sharing chips, compute and capital under one plan. Space would become a market for Optimus and energy storage. Tesla is significantly undervalued because the market gives too little credit to energy, autonomy, Robotaxi, Optimus and AI; SpaceX is equally undervalued. A no-premium merger of equals is fair while valuations remain comparable. No deal is announced; early next year looks most likely. x.com … Show more
SpaceX's heavy spending and risk of further borrowing make its sharp stock rally hard to square with weakening debt and a huge lock-up expiration ahead. Bloomberg reports its bonds weakened and credit spreads widened despite earnings above estimates. Talk of a potential Tesla acquisition is also in the air. x.com
